Before the Spring Festival, whether the compound fertilizer can pass smoothly

The bells of the Spring Festival approached gradually, and the compound fertilizer winter storage sales were basically over half. Recently, related policies for chemical fertilizers have been issued one after another. Is it good or bad that it has not yet been achieved? In such a depressed environment, can the compound fertilizer be spent smoothly before the Spring Festival?

The policies on chemical fertilizers have been introduced: 1. Export tariffs have been relaxed and the season has been cancelled. Binary fertilizers, other fertilizers, and small packages are all 5% -- Jiangsu fertilizer companies and other nearby compound fertilizer companies have started to order export orders. Will not have much impact on domestic fertilizer prices, but will also properly digest domestic inventory; 2, the rumors that the value-added tax may be restored - if it is restored, the compound fertilizer costs will increase 30-50 yuan (after the arrival of raw materials) However, the discussion on this issue is now declining; 3, rail freight prices - the current price of raw materials is still basically stable, but if the freight rate rises, the cost pressure will be passed on to the compound fertilizer companies.

This year's compound fertilizer winter stock market is relatively flat and the overall stocking time has also been postponed. Recently, the price of compound fertilizer is basically stable. The mainstream factory price of 45%cl (15:15:15) is around 1800-1950 yuan (ton price, the same below); the mainstream factory price of 45%s (15:15:15) compound fertilizer At 2150 yuan or more, due to the unsatisfactory turnover of new orders, but they are more optimistic about the outlook, most large companies said that they would not adjust their prices before the end of the year.

As the initial orders were issued in succession, the start-up situation of all companies was slightly lower. The operating rate of large plants was around 70%, while the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises was only 3-40%, and some of them had ceased production, and were resumed after the first month of the fifteenth. According to another understanding, the inventory of various companies has increased, ranging from 1 to 10 million tons, but due to the variety of compound fertilizers and their rich varieties, these stocks have little impact on the start of the market in the later period. There may be tight supply.

On the whole, current market demand is temporarily weak due to the impact of the Spring Festival. Compound fertilizer companies have some sales and inventory pressure, but this is not very large, and most of them are not prepared to make unnecessary price adjustments at this time. Although the impact is not clear, it will have a big negative impact. Therefore, it is expected that the compound fertilizer market will maintain stability before the Spring Festival, and will gradually release with the market demand after the Spring Festival. Its price should be expected to increase.