The growth of plastic products will rebound in the medium term.

[ Jiuzhi Plastics News] Since the beginning of this year, the downstream demand for plastics has rebounded significantly compared with last year. At the same time, the supply has contracted slightly and the overall supply and demand situation is good. After entering the fourth quarter, domestic supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand may also maintain a certain degree of growth, but the balance between supply and demand may not be as good as the previous eight months.

Overall supply growth slowed

Since 2015, there has been no new production equipment for domestic plastics. From January to August this year, the cumulative output of plastics increased by about 238,000 tons compared with last year, but the net import volume decreased by about 80,000 tons; the supply of new materials increased by 158,000 tons, a year-on-year growth rate of less than 3%, compared with 6% in the same period last year. There must be a slowdown. In terms of recycled materials, due to environmental protection policies and profits, the supply of recycled plastics for plastics has been further reduced on the basis of last year, especially the import of recycled materials has dropped significantly, which has led to further contraction of plastics. The supply growth rate may be near zero.

Plastic products growth rebounded significantly

The downstream of plastics is the plastics industry, which covers a wide range of fields such as plastic film, injection molding and pipe. Among them, the proportion of plastic film reached 75%. In 2015, the overall growth of downstream plastic products production was extremely low. It was once in a negative growth state. The output of plastic products increased significantly this year. The cumulative growth rate in the first 8 months exceeded 5%, and the growth of plastic film was more than 7%.

Outlook outlook

In the fourth quarter, plastic supply and demand will increase at the same time, but the balance between supply and demand may not be as good as the previous eight months. Xiao Bian believes that the plastic may show an oscillating trend in the medium term. It is expected that the main contract of 1701 will run at 8300-9200 yuan/ton. From the technical graphics point of view, 8200-8300 yuan / ton is the strong support area of ​​the main plastic 1701 contract, and 9000-9200 yuan / ton is a larger pressure area.