It is expected that global copper concentrate supply will remain tight in the next four years.
2023-04-12 22:06:48
In the next four years, China's copper demand will maintain a medium-speed development. The supply of global copper concentrates is still tight. The contradiction between supply and demand in the copper market is slightly slower than in the previous decade, and copper prices will still play a supporting role. After more than half a year of adjustment, the international copper price has returned to the level when the US launched QE2 in 2010. Although the influence of financial attributes fluctuates greatly, the analysis based on the balance of supply and demand is still a compulsory course for studying future copper prices. According to industry experts, the global production capacity of copper mines will reach 3,534,100 tons per year from 2012 to 2015. Among them, there are 15 copper mine projects with globally expandable production capacity, with a total capacity of 1.5153 million tons/year. In the same period, 15 new copper mines can be built, with a total capacity of 207,800 tons/year. Therefore, it is expected that if all the copper mine production capacity can be completed as scheduled, the average annual growth of China's demand in the next four years (2012-2015) will be below 6% to ensure the overall supply and demand balance in the global market. Since the beginning of the 21st century, Chinese demand has gradually become the driving force for global copper consumption growth. European copper demand decreased by 1.051 million tons, the United States netted by 11.228 million tons, while China's demand increased by a net by 5.01 million tons. By the end of 2011, China's copper demand accounted for about 41% of the world. In fact, it is very difficult to keep China's copper demand growth below 6% per year in the next four years. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Nonferrous Metals Industry†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the beginning of this year, the annual output of refined copper in China will reach 6.5 million tons by 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3%. The actual growth rate may still be slightly above 7.3%.
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