The new direction of China's PV development: quality or scale

In August 2013, a number of first-line PV companies including CLP, China Guangdong Nuclear Power, TBEA, Jingke, Yingli and Trina Solar, and related research institutes, certification units and research institutes jointly discussed how to promote the industry in Xining, Qinghai. Healthy development. On the one hand, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry is constantly expanding. On the one hand, the quality of components and the quality of power plants are not optimistic. How can the two balance development become a guarantee for the health of the industry?

The challenge of expanding the scale of the industry

Although the EU's anti-dumping has been settled, the huge scale of China's PV industry still needs to be further upgraded. The healthy development of the photovoltaic industry has become the focus of discussion in the China Power Plant's efficient and reliable operation and photovoltaic materials technology seminar organized by DuPont and Southern Weekend and China's green industry promotion plan.

To scale or quality - China's photovoltaic industry needs new directions

Macroscopically, the healthy development of the industry and the scale development of enterprises on the micro level are already in conflict. Jiao Xiaoping, deputy director of the Clean Development Fund Management Center of the Ministry of Finance, explained how to support the photovoltaic industry financially. “The photovoltaic industry has grown from a start to a decade. Towards surplus, the government has played a very negative role and has not been treated with the market economy. The government's policy is nothing more than taxation, subsidies, interest subsidies, and some government procurement, but it is necessary to determine the boundaries of government behavior and markets. In front of the Chinese PV industry, the government It is necessary to reflect on how to support an industry and what kind of mentality and method support."

Luo Xiang, director of the China Investment Promotion Office of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, also commented on the government's management approach involving new energy. "Before, various policies were chaotic, and various government departments were involved in the formulation of new energy policies. I counted the next There are 18 departments, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, etc. These policies are fragmented and there is no way to system them. Although the amount of subsidies is large, the subsidies are misplaced. It is necessary to subsidize the terminal link rather than the production link. The more subsidies are produced, the more excess capacity will result."

The fact that there is excess capacity already exists, and then the government's policy can only shift to industrial restructuring. Wang Haisheng, former chief analyst of Xinsheng Securities Power Equipment New Energy and now working for Ping An Asset Management, analyzed the terminal application market. The downstream market is the driving force for industrial adjustment. "After 20 years of subsidized electricity prices, it can truly start the platform for financial investment in photovoltaic power plants." Wang Haisheng compared the impact of large-scale ground power stations and distributed projects on the structure of the photovoltaic market. “Large power plants are more suitable for central enterprises and large power groups, and private capital in distributed projects will occupy a very large proportion. In the distributed, the demand for financial investment and securitization is more obvious.”

Among the enterprises currently involved in the photovoltaic power generation industry, power companies and photovoltaic enterprises are the two main players. The former is more adequately funded, and the latter are mostly extended by the photovoltaic manufacturing industry. These enterprises have large capital requirements. Wang Haisheng analyzed the source of funds. “One way is to securitize power station projects through listing or issuing bonds, but this is mainly for large-scale power plants; the second way is to bridge financing mode. The real estate industry is relatively common. This is a good financing channel when the project has not yet received loans. The third is financial leasing. SolarCity, a US listed PV company, adopts this model, but SolarCity's capital cost is relatively low. About 3%, which is difficult to achieve in China, is basically around 8%, which affects the investment recovery period.” Wang Haisheng’s team will be dedicated to the capital operation of photovoltaic projects to help power station developers and investors achieve greater scale. development of.

Since the second quarter of 2013, there have been new fluctuations in China's PV industry, mainly reflected in prices and advance payments. Yao Feng, vice president of Jinko Energy, felt that “the environment of the entire photovoltaic industry has slowly improved in the past year, and production has begun to develop in a healthy direction. Of course, it is still far from healthy.” Yao Feng analyzed, “Now the quality of customers is coming. The higher the price, the more stable the price, unlike before, the quality, account period and price are better than before.” In his view, the business ecosystem has four points, one is profit, the Chinese market is mainly from the state-owned enterprises. And their bidding often becomes a low-price bid, and after the low-price bid, they must guarantee the profit, and the sacrifice is the quality. Yao Feng said, “Jingke can have nothing, no customers, no employees, but quality. Now it is impossible to have problems in large quantities. We must guarantee profit, guarantee quality, and bear the corresponding Responsibility.” Yao Feng said that the other three points in the business ecosystem are the survival of the fittest mechanism, stable income expectations and sustainable development. Yao Feng has already felt the existence of the survival of the fittest. “There were often two or 30 companies competing in the bidding last year. The bids are generally 3-6 this year.” The newly introduced electricity price policy gives a stable income expectation. After several years of cooperation, the Jingke team led by Yao Feng has established a stable relationship with CGNPC, Sanxia New Energy, China Power Investment and other partners. The stable investment scale of the latter has also brought sustainable development to Jingke. space.

Sun Huijiang, who is responsible for Yingli's market in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Ningxia and Gansu provinces, also experienced changes in the market. The market he was responsible for sold a total of 899MW components from 2009, 58MW in 2010, 263MW in 2011, and 278MW in 2012. . The northwest market is the key market for Yingli. In order to ensure more and more shipments, Yingli set up an after-sales service station in Lanzhou to ensure on-site customer service within 24-48 hours.

Quality - the bottom line of industry health

The quality of products and systems is the bottom line for the health of the entire PV industry. Xie Bin, the manager of CGN Solar Technology, has experienced that “We started to build photovoltaic power plants in 2010, and we also experienced the hot in the second half of 2011. In the second half of 2011, in order to catch up with electricity prices, the central control room was not built yet, and the power station was connected to the grid. The quality at that time could not be guaranteed. Due to the rushing work, the failure rate of these projects was relatively high, so the quality was controlled after continuous rectification.” Xie Bin’s current project is also to be connected to the grid at the end of this year. In the case of winter construction, this also directly affects the quality of the project.

Yao Feng of Jingke also encountered this situation. "In 2011, the price of 1.15 yuan / kWh must be connected to the grid at the end of the year, and it is already very late when the license is started. For the owners and investors. In the short-term sacrifice of power station quality and higher electricity prices, the latter will definitely be chosen." Yao Feng said, "Quality issues are actually the rules of the game, the rules are very healthy, and the quality problems will be solved." At the end of August, the new electricity price policy was introduced. The power station built after 2013 can only enjoy the price of 0.9 or 0.95 yuan/kWh, and can no longer enjoy the price of 1 yuan. Similarly, the phenomenon of rushing in the second half of this year will occur.

Dong Wei, of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Sun Yat-sen University, reported on the organization's analysis of the quality of crystalline silicon components used in outdoor use for more than 23 years. Each of the components with a nominal power of 42.6 watts supplied by Solarex in the United States was manufactured in 1982, in 1986. Installed in a communication microwave station in Hainan in the year, as of 2008, the attenuation is only about 6%, even if the average power can reach 84.6% compared with the original maximum power of 47 watts. Component appearance defects are mainly caused by aging and damage of the packaging material, sealing of the junction box, and damage of the internal diode.

Yao Feng expressed surprise at the attenuation test of Sun Yat-sen University, but he also agreed on the importance of component quality. "If there is a healthy mentality to make photovoltaic products, even if it does not attenuate 6%, it can be achieved within 10%. At present, the domestic photovoltaic industry Shortly afterwards, many components used 5% or even 7% of attenuation in three or four years, and more serious problems such as 10% attenuation or back plate cracking."

As the largest PV power plant investment company in China, Zhang Juncai, deputy general manager of the Yellow River upstream hydropower development company of China Power Investment Corporation, analyzed the factors affecting the cost of electricity, and quality is the focus. This has built 9 power stations with a total of 439 MW, and is building 7 power stations with 647.8 MW. The total scale of the leading enterprises of 2002 MW requires that the crystalline silicon components should be no more than 2% within 2 years, no more than 5% within 5 years, and not within 10 years. Above 10%, 25 years is not higher than 20%, and the annual failure rate is not higher than 0.01% during the warranty period of not less than 10 years. However, in practical applications, it has been found that the back plate of the component is discolored, the back plate is damaged, and the EVA yellowing, blistering, hot spot effect, and junction box burning are many problems.

Taking the 200MW power station of the Geermu Phase I of the Yellow River Company as an example, after testing the components of the six suppliers, the average power loss was 7 watts. According to the local average daily usage hours of 4.3 hours and the comprehensive efficiency of 80%, the first phase of 200MW and The second phase of 100MW reduces the annual power generation by approximately 13.5 million kWh. From the sampling results of a batch of components, although the power is generally negative, the power of the D manufacturer is reduced by 11.79%, the I manufacturer is reduced by 10.4%, and the H manufacturer is attenuated by 4%. Zhang Juncai said, “This reflects the difference in battery and component material selection and process.” For the condition of component power attenuation, Huanghe Company requires all suppliers to carry out after-sales service and focus on troubleshooting problems. However, there are three manufacturers that “have a bullish phenomenon. They say that the industry is in a downturn and the cost of investigation is high, which violates the contractual agreement.” Zhang Juncai concluded that “component life and efficiency are the key factors to reduce the cost of electricity, and the materials are component quality. Fundamental protection. Especially in the harsh climatic conditions in the west, we must choose high-quality auxiliary materials and components to avoid large-scale occurrence of quality problems, thus reducing the cost of electricity."

As the world's leading material supplier, DuPont is improving the reliability of its PV modules through integrated solutions. Du Bo said that the photovoltaic industry will rely more on material suppliers in the process, technical support and product route. The quality problems often occur in components such as aging of packaging materials, failure of delamination of backsheets, and glass removal. Layers, etc., are mostly related to materials.” In Solarbuyer's statistics, the average defect rate of components in 2012 continued to rise, and the defective rate in the pre-shipment inspection results in 2011 was only about 5%. This figure reached in mid-2012. 15%-25%. In practical applications, the total UV dose for the 25-year period of the component in a mild environment is 171 kwh/m2, while the data for the tropical and desert environments can reach 235 and 275, respectively. Fu Bo said that the requirements for backsheet materials are completely different in different environments. At present, DuPont is further strengthening cooperation with component manufacturers to provide differentiated solutions for components in different application environments to ensure maximum cost control under quality conditions. DuPont is also communicating with government agencies, banks, insurance companies, third-party quality inspection agencies, etc., to cause the entire industry to pay attention to quality.

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