Shale gas investment short-term hard-earning enterprises call for withdrawal

The shale gas investment has attracted many non-energy industry companies to participate in the shale gas block bidding, hoping to enter the energy field. However, according to industry insiders, China's shale gas investment will be able to achieve benefits by 2021-2030. As the country's channels for the transfer of shale gas mining rights have not been established, it is still necessary to improve the relevant policies for how to realize the circulation and continuous investment in the exploration blocks with hundreds of millions of yuan.

The "12th Five-Year" goal is difficult to complete

“Shale gas is hot in China because many companies see this area as an important opportunity to break the monopoly of energy resources development and nuggets in the energy sector,” said a person working on shale gas development. However, behind the seemingly hot block bidding, many people in the industry are not optimistic about the short-term benefits of shale gas investment, and even believe that the development goals of the shale gas "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will be lost.

It is understood that since 2009, the Ministry of Land and Resources, local geological survey departments, oil and gas companies, etc. have completed 129 shale gas drilling, after hydraulic fracturing and testing, Nissan has more than 23 square meters, and Nissan has more than 100,000 square meters. Four trials were conducted, and the output in 2012 was about 25 million square meters.

In 2012, some of China's shale gas resource evaluation wells achieved commercial trial production and basically mastered the key technologies for shale gas development. According to statistics, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, China's shale gas exploration has invested more than 7 billion yuan, more than 80 construction drilling, more than 20 horizontal wells, and high-yield wells in Sichuan and Chongqing. In 2012, it sold 15 million cubic meters of shale gas through natural gas pipeline network, with a cumulative sales of 30 million cubic meters.

According to CNPC, from the current production, it is more difficult to achieve the 2015 shale gas production of 6.5 billion cubic meters as determined in the “12th Five-Year” development plan for shale gas resources. This person believes that the accurate mastery of resources in China's shale gas development requires a process, and the formation of a complete and mature development technology will take some time. In addition, there is still a process for cultivating the basic pipe network, the consumer market, and the property rights market. The economics of mining are still difficult to assess.

The property rights circulation channel needs to be established

Although the prospect of shale gas development is worth looking forward to, industry experts believe that the focus should be on mastering resources, forming sound supporting technologies, cultivating consumption and property rights market in the near future, and not rushing to promote industrialization. It will take 5 to 10 years to achieve Large-scale industrial development of shale gas.

"At present, the country only conducts bidding is not perfect. If there is no exit channel, investors will have concerns." CNPC believes that in the process of shale gas resources formation, if the company is unwilling to carry out subsequent mining, there should be appropriate exit channels. That is to establish a sound transfer market for shale gas ore rights, so that the continuous investment can be carried out smoothly, in order to eliminate worries for enterprises.

Judging from the results of the previous two rounds of shale gas bidding, state-owned enterprises are the absolute main force of winning the bid. Including coal power companies and local direct energy investment or geological system enterprises took over the second bidding of 17 of the 19 bidding blocks, and obtained three years of exploration rights; among the 83 enterprises that initially participated in the bidding, private enterprises accounted for a high proportion. 1/3, but only two won the bid. Yahua Consulting believes that the third round of shale gas prospecting tenders, which are expected to kick off this year, will still be dominated by state-owned enterprises.

Kearney (Shanghai) Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd. said that China's shale gas development has problems such as long exploration cycle, lack of relevant experience and high cost. The development of the winning bidders at this stage is not smooth. It is understood that China is currently in the initial stage of shale gas exploration, and the exploration and mining cost is significantly higher than conventional oil and natural gas, and is much higher than the exploration and mining cost of shale gas in the United States. According to the statistics of PetroChina and Sinopec, the cost of drilling and completion and fracturing for each horizontal well is 80 million yuan to 100 million yuan.

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