Overcapacity has intensified: government companies help the fire
2023-07-04 15:08:38
Core tips
■What's new in the excess situation? Some steel entrepreneurs described it as the “Boss†(referring to the national project), the “second child†(referring to local projects), and the “third†(referring to the private enterprise project).
â– There are new features in overcapacity? In the past, there was a combination of excess and structural insufficiency. At present, it is “low and highâ€, that is, the blind expansion of production capacity of some high-end industries has also caused “high level of duplicationâ€.
â– Should the excess board be on the government? The government and enterprises have a "wind-help fire" relationship, forming a surplus situation today under the joint efforts of the government to chase finances and enterprises to pursue short-term profits.
â– How to eliminate backward production capacity? To completely change the concept of “long-term balance†in the past, “adding more water and adding more waterâ€, planning new structures with new demands, and implementing the second international industrial transfer
Overcapacity has intensified
19 manufacturing industries used equipment utilization lower than international standards last year, and steel and electrolytic aluminum are still expanding production capacity.
Reporter: Last year, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Resolving the Contradictions of Overcapacity", but in fact there is still controversy over the problem of overcapacity. One reason for the debate is that people use different standards to measure. What do you think of this?
Lu Baizhen: Whether the overcapacity is serious, the international standard is measured by the capacity utilization rate, that is, the ratio of actual output to potential capacity. The potential production capacity mentioned here is the comprehensive production capacity of the equipment already formed. European and American countries generally believe that the capacity utilization rate is in the range of 79%-83%, which is a reasonable ratio of production to demand.
The serious problem of overcapacity in China is that industries below the excess level are not limited to the five industries mentioned in the State Council document. According to the “2013 China Enterprise Operators Questionnaire Tracking Survey†organized by the China Entrepreneur Survey System, the utilization rate of equipment in China is generally 72%, of which the manufacturing industry is only 70.8%, which is one percentage point lower than that in 2012. 70% of entrepreneurs believe that there is overcapacity in the industry. 19 manufacturing capacity utilization rates of textile and apparel apparel, paper and paper products, chemical raw materials and products, pharmaceutical manufacturing, motor and equipment manufacturing, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing are all below 79%. The capacity utilization rate of the seven industries is still below 70%, and only two are close to 79%.
Reporter: Since the introduction of relevant policies to resolve overcapacity, has there been any new changes in the surplus situation?
Lu Baizhen: At present, China's overcapacity has intensified. The above-mentioned serious overcapacity industries still have a number of projects under construction and proposed to be built, which are continuing to expand, so that overcapacity continues to increase. According to statistics, the current capacity of projects under construction in the electrolytic aluminum industry is 10 million tons. In 2013, the newly completed production capacity will be about 4.2 million tons. If all are put into production, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity will expand to 38 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be reduced to 50%.
The impulse to expand the steel industry has not diminished. According to statistics, 510 projects have been started in 2013. If all the investments in construction, design and planning are completed, China's steelmaking capacity will increase by more than 50 million tons. Some steel entrepreneurs have described that it is currently the “Boss†(referring to the national project), the “second child†(referring to local projects), and the “third†(referring to the private enterprise project). According to industry insiders, at present, less than 40% of the newly approved projects in the steel industry have been approved, and 60% are “black householdsâ€.
Be wary of excess growth
Overcapacity, excess growth and structural excess coexist, emerging industries do not follow the old path of traditional industries
Reporter: Overcapacity has appeared several times in the development of the last decade or so, but this time the situation seems very complicated. How do you analyze the new characteristics of current overcapacity?
Lu Baizhen: At present, China's overcapacity, three types of surplus - excess, excess growth and structural excess exist at the same time, and there is overlap and aggravation.
In the past, the overcapacity industry was generally over-emphasized, while at the same time there was a problem of insufficient internal structure. In this round of overcapacity industries, not only the absolute excess of the total amount, but also the overcapacity of the production capacity of most products, resulting in a serious “absolute excessâ€. Problems such as the steel industry, electrolytic aluminum industry, and cement industry are particularly prominent. The so-called excess growth means that overcapacity is not limited to general traditional industries. The production capacity of some strategic emerging industries such as coal chemical, wind power equipment manufacturing, polysilicon and photovoltaic cells is also seriously overcapacity. According to statistics, at present, the utilization rate of wind power equipment in China is only 67%, the utilization rate of photovoltaic capacity is only 57%, and the utilization rate of polysilicon capacity is lower, only 35%.
Reporter: Is there an inevitable surplus in the development of emerging industries? What should the two surpluses look like?
Lu Baizhen: Yes, the emergence of excess growth is generally an inevitable phenomenon in the development stage of emerging industries. Often, with the development of market demand, the contradiction of overcapacity will be eased smoothly, and even the short-term capacity shortage will occur.
However, there is a problem of vigilance in China's current growth surplus, that is, low-level technical repetitive development, some core technologies are not in their own hands, such as photovoltaic industry and polysilicon industry. In the past, the structural excess was mainly manifested in “low and high shortagesâ€, that is, the overcapacity of low-end products and insufficient production capacity of high-end products. This time, overcapacity in many industries is not only “lower†but also “higherâ€, that is, due to the blind expansion of production capacity of some high-end industries, it has also caused “high level of duplicationâ€.
For the current overcapacity of emerging industries, we must warn: Do not take the old path of traditional industries. Because the institutional and institutional factors that lead to overcapacity in traditional industries still exist, emerging industries are also rushing upwards, and the convergence of emerging industrial structures will also bring about problems in debt, taxation, and employment.
Overcapacity is complicated
With global, phased and cyclical characteristics, the government and enterprises "wind help the fire"
Reporter: The complexity of the current overcapacity is closely related to the close integration of the Chinese economy and the world economy.
Lu Baizhen: Indeed, the background of overcapacity in this round has global, phased and cyclical characteristics.
Driven by globalization, Western industrial countries have successively transferred industrial industries with high energy consumption, heavy pollution, and labor to developing countries. In the early and middle stages of reform and opening up, China has continued to carry out such “industrial transfer†in large numbers, and some industries have even reached 70%-90% of the world's total production capacity. Excessively concentrated production capacity in China has become a source of absolute excess problems. This kind of connection has advantages and disadvantages, and the drawbacks have appeared more in recent years. In particular, when the international financial crisis broke out in 2008, international demand fell sharply, and China was the first to bear the brunt of the “world manufacturing factoryâ€.
China has entered a new stage of transformation and development, structural optimization, technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and quality improvement, and has become the goal of China's industrial development. The high-end and high-level new requirements of the industry have made the backward production capacity and excess capacity of some industries become cumbersome, and overcapacity has become a prominent problem.
Reporter: When discussing overcapacity, public opinion always puts the board on the government's "visible hand". Do you agree with this view?
Lu Baizhen: The board of public opinion focuses on "policy blindness". This has some truth, but it is not entirely correct. It should be objectively recognized that the market is also blind. Overcapacity should be the result of the dual attraction of government administrative means and market disorderly competition. It is not the result of many public opinion, but only the result of "local government performance." In fact, between the government behavior and the chasing of corporate behavior, there is a collateral relationship between “wind and fireâ€. This "two-way synergy" is formed in the common interest, that is, the government pursues finances, and enterprises pursue short-term profits. For example, in the steel industry, when the market demand and price signals appear “goodâ€, they will start to “spring upâ€.
Thinking about industrial layout from a strategic perspective
Guide the surplus industry to actively implement the “re-transfer†strategy, and turn over the overcapacity to improve the development level.
Reporter: It seems that this round of overcapacity is a hard battle. Do you have any suggestions?
Lu Baizhen: Recognition is the first. We can't just look at the overcapacity governance work from the traditional level of eliminating backward production capacity, improving energy resources and equipment utilization. We must think about the capacity layout and structural design of each industry from the strategic choice of the overall structure of the industry. Look at capacity issues from a strategic perspective.
The industrial development of any country must go through the low-end, mid-end and high-end stages, and China is no exception. In the 35 years before the reform and opening up, we seized the golden opportunity of the great transformation of the international industrial structure, starting from the low end and developing into a "world factory." After becoming the world's second largest economy, China's own development and transformation has clearly seen three major changes: from the past focus on external demand to mainly rely on domestic demand; from the past mainly relying on extension of investment expansion to focus on connotation innovation; Exogenous power is driven to shift to focus on endogenous motivation. These three major changes require new and more dynamic, more advantageous advantages, and more favorable and continuous adjustments to China's industrial structure and layout. It is necessary to completely change the concept of "long-term balance" in the past, "adding more water and adding more water". Plan new structures with new demands, eradicate the cumbersomeness of the industry, and get rid of the "low-end manufacturing plants in the world". In other words, it is time for China's industry to develop something that must be abandoned.
Reporter: At the current stage of development, what do you think China's industrial layout should abandon?
Lu Baizhen: "International industrial transfer" is an inevitable trend in the process of globalization. In the last century, developing countries such as China assumed the traditional industries of developed countries, which was the first international industrial transfer. Nowadays, from the perspective of globalization, China and other emerging countries have become the main members of the second echelon in the international industrial division. At that time, the capacity that was undertaken was seriously oversupplied. From the perspective of development law, it is necessary to seize the opportunity to actively implement some of the traditions. The industry's re-transfer strategy, the second international industrial transfer.
This kind of international industrial transfer can take many forms, and it is necessary to formulate a two-in-one plan to achieve a win-win situation in the cooperation and development with the host countries: one is to transfer part of the production capacity to the third echelon country by means of physical investment. The return of products; the second is to assist the part of the production capacity to the third echelon countries to help them develop the economy and increase employment; the third is to sell some of the more advanced production facilities in the international market by means of international auction bidding; The way to go out is to change the domestic factory to set up a factory abroad, change the domestic supply to foreign materials, change the domestic market to a foreign market, and change the domestic employment to foreign employment. Implementing the "re-transfer" strategy is another new opportunity for China's development and a necessary step for China to break away from the low-development stage. The serious overcapacity of governance is an opportunity. Combined with the “re-transfer†strategy, it is more conducive to the smooth transition of China's redevelopment and the further improvement of the development scale.
■What's new in the excess situation? Some steel entrepreneurs described it as the “Boss†(referring to the national project), the “second child†(referring to local projects), and the “third†(referring to the private enterprise project).
â– There are new features in overcapacity? In the past, there was a combination of excess and structural insufficiency. At present, it is “low and highâ€, that is, the blind expansion of production capacity of some high-end industries has also caused “high level of duplicationâ€.
â– Should the excess board be on the government? The government and enterprises have a "wind-help fire" relationship, forming a surplus situation today under the joint efforts of the government to chase finances and enterprises to pursue short-term profits.
â– How to eliminate backward production capacity? To completely change the concept of “long-term balance†in the past, “adding more water and adding more waterâ€, planning new structures with new demands, and implementing the second international industrial transfer
Overcapacity has intensified
19 manufacturing industries used equipment utilization lower than international standards last year, and steel and electrolytic aluminum are still expanding production capacity.
Reporter: Last year, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Resolving the Contradictions of Overcapacity", but in fact there is still controversy over the problem of overcapacity. One reason for the debate is that people use different standards to measure. What do you think of this?
Lu Baizhen: Whether the overcapacity is serious, the international standard is measured by the capacity utilization rate, that is, the ratio of actual output to potential capacity. The potential production capacity mentioned here is the comprehensive production capacity of the equipment already formed. European and American countries generally believe that the capacity utilization rate is in the range of 79%-83%, which is a reasonable ratio of production to demand.
The serious problem of overcapacity in China is that industries below the excess level are not limited to the five industries mentioned in the State Council document. According to the “2013 China Enterprise Operators Questionnaire Tracking Survey†organized by the China Entrepreneur Survey System, the utilization rate of equipment in China is generally 72%, of which the manufacturing industry is only 70.8%, which is one percentage point lower than that in 2012. 70% of entrepreneurs believe that there is overcapacity in the industry. 19 manufacturing capacity utilization rates of textile and apparel apparel, paper and paper products, chemical raw materials and products, pharmaceutical manufacturing, motor and equipment manufacturing, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing are all below 79%. The capacity utilization rate of the seven industries is still below 70%, and only two are close to 79%.
Reporter: Since the introduction of relevant policies to resolve overcapacity, has there been any new changes in the surplus situation?
Lu Baizhen: At present, China's overcapacity has intensified. The above-mentioned serious overcapacity industries still have a number of projects under construction and proposed to be built, which are continuing to expand, so that overcapacity continues to increase. According to statistics, the current capacity of projects under construction in the electrolytic aluminum industry is 10 million tons. In 2013, the newly completed production capacity will be about 4.2 million tons. If all are put into production, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity will expand to 38 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be reduced to 50%.
The impulse to expand the steel industry has not diminished. According to statistics, 510 projects have been started in 2013. If all the investments in construction, design and planning are completed, China's steelmaking capacity will increase by more than 50 million tons. Some steel entrepreneurs have described that it is currently the “Boss†(referring to the national project), the “second child†(referring to local projects), and the “third†(referring to the private enterprise project). According to industry insiders, at present, less than 40% of the newly approved projects in the steel industry have been approved, and 60% are “black householdsâ€.
Be wary of excess growth
Overcapacity, excess growth and structural excess coexist, emerging industries do not follow the old path of traditional industries
Reporter: Overcapacity has appeared several times in the development of the last decade or so, but this time the situation seems very complicated. How do you analyze the new characteristics of current overcapacity?
Lu Baizhen: At present, China's overcapacity, three types of surplus - excess, excess growth and structural excess exist at the same time, and there is overlap and aggravation.
In the past, the overcapacity industry was generally over-emphasized, while at the same time there was a problem of insufficient internal structure. In this round of overcapacity industries, not only the absolute excess of the total amount, but also the overcapacity of the production capacity of most products, resulting in a serious “absolute excessâ€. Problems such as the steel industry, electrolytic aluminum industry, and cement industry are particularly prominent. The so-called excess growth means that overcapacity is not limited to general traditional industries. The production capacity of some strategic emerging industries such as coal chemical, wind power equipment manufacturing, polysilicon and photovoltaic cells is also seriously overcapacity. According to statistics, at present, the utilization rate of wind power equipment in China is only 67%, the utilization rate of photovoltaic capacity is only 57%, and the utilization rate of polysilicon capacity is lower, only 35%.
Reporter: Is there an inevitable surplus in the development of emerging industries? What should the two surpluses look like?
Lu Baizhen: Yes, the emergence of excess growth is generally an inevitable phenomenon in the development stage of emerging industries. Often, with the development of market demand, the contradiction of overcapacity will be eased smoothly, and even the short-term capacity shortage will occur.
However, there is a problem of vigilance in China's current growth surplus, that is, low-level technical repetitive development, some core technologies are not in their own hands, such as photovoltaic industry and polysilicon industry. In the past, the structural excess was mainly manifested in “low and high shortagesâ€, that is, the overcapacity of low-end products and insufficient production capacity of high-end products. This time, overcapacity in many industries is not only “lower†but also “higherâ€, that is, due to the blind expansion of production capacity of some high-end industries, it has also caused “high level of duplicationâ€.
For the current overcapacity of emerging industries, we must warn: Do not take the old path of traditional industries. Because the institutional and institutional factors that lead to overcapacity in traditional industries still exist, emerging industries are also rushing upwards, and the convergence of emerging industrial structures will also bring about problems in debt, taxation, and employment.
Overcapacity is complicated
With global, phased and cyclical characteristics, the government and enterprises "wind help the fire"
Reporter: The complexity of the current overcapacity is closely related to the close integration of the Chinese economy and the world economy.
Lu Baizhen: Indeed, the background of overcapacity in this round has global, phased and cyclical characteristics.
Driven by globalization, Western industrial countries have successively transferred industrial industries with high energy consumption, heavy pollution, and labor to developing countries. In the early and middle stages of reform and opening up, China has continued to carry out such “industrial transfer†in large numbers, and some industries have even reached 70%-90% of the world's total production capacity. Excessively concentrated production capacity in China has become a source of absolute excess problems. This kind of connection has advantages and disadvantages, and the drawbacks have appeared more in recent years. In particular, when the international financial crisis broke out in 2008, international demand fell sharply, and China was the first to bear the brunt of the “world manufacturing factoryâ€.
China has entered a new stage of transformation and development, structural optimization, technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and quality improvement, and has become the goal of China's industrial development. The high-end and high-level new requirements of the industry have made the backward production capacity and excess capacity of some industries become cumbersome, and overcapacity has become a prominent problem.
Reporter: When discussing overcapacity, public opinion always puts the board on the government's "visible hand". Do you agree with this view?
Lu Baizhen: The board of public opinion focuses on "policy blindness". This has some truth, but it is not entirely correct. It should be objectively recognized that the market is also blind. Overcapacity should be the result of the dual attraction of government administrative means and market disorderly competition. It is not the result of many public opinion, but only the result of "local government performance." In fact, between the government behavior and the chasing of corporate behavior, there is a collateral relationship between “wind and fireâ€. This "two-way synergy" is formed in the common interest, that is, the government pursues finances, and enterprises pursue short-term profits. For example, in the steel industry, when the market demand and price signals appear “goodâ€, they will start to “spring upâ€.
Thinking about industrial layout from a strategic perspective
Guide the surplus industry to actively implement the “re-transfer†strategy, and turn over the overcapacity to improve the development level.
Reporter: It seems that this round of overcapacity is a hard battle. Do you have any suggestions?
Lu Baizhen: Recognition is the first. We can't just look at the overcapacity governance work from the traditional level of eliminating backward production capacity, improving energy resources and equipment utilization. We must think about the capacity layout and structural design of each industry from the strategic choice of the overall structure of the industry. Look at capacity issues from a strategic perspective.
The industrial development of any country must go through the low-end, mid-end and high-end stages, and China is no exception. In the 35 years before the reform and opening up, we seized the golden opportunity of the great transformation of the international industrial structure, starting from the low end and developing into a "world factory." After becoming the world's second largest economy, China's own development and transformation has clearly seen three major changes: from the past focus on external demand to mainly rely on domestic demand; from the past mainly relying on extension of investment expansion to focus on connotation innovation; Exogenous power is driven to shift to focus on endogenous motivation. These three major changes require new and more dynamic, more advantageous advantages, and more favorable and continuous adjustments to China's industrial structure and layout. It is necessary to completely change the concept of "long-term balance" in the past, "adding more water and adding more water". Plan new structures with new demands, eradicate the cumbersomeness of the industry, and get rid of the "low-end manufacturing plants in the world". In other words, it is time for China's industry to develop something that must be abandoned.
Reporter: At the current stage of development, what do you think China's industrial layout should abandon?
Lu Baizhen: "International industrial transfer" is an inevitable trend in the process of globalization. In the last century, developing countries such as China assumed the traditional industries of developed countries, which was the first international industrial transfer. Nowadays, from the perspective of globalization, China and other emerging countries have become the main members of the second echelon in the international industrial division. At that time, the capacity that was undertaken was seriously oversupplied. From the perspective of development law, it is necessary to seize the opportunity to actively implement some of the traditions. The industry's re-transfer strategy, the second international industrial transfer.
This kind of international industrial transfer can take many forms, and it is necessary to formulate a two-in-one plan to achieve a win-win situation in the cooperation and development with the host countries: one is to transfer part of the production capacity to the third echelon country by means of physical investment. The return of products; the second is to assist the part of the production capacity to the third echelon countries to help them develop the economy and increase employment; the third is to sell some of the more advanced production facilities in the international market by means of international auction bidding; The way to go out is to change the domestic factory to set up a factory abroad, change the domestic supply to foreign materials, change the domestic market to a foreign market, and change the domestic employment to foreign employment. Implementing the "re-transfer" strategy is another new opportunity for China's development and a necessary step for China to break away from the low-development stage. The serious overcapacity of governance is an opportunity. Combined with the “re-transfer†strategy, it is more conducive to the smooth transition of China's redevelopment and the further improvement of the development scale.
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