Coke prices hit a new 6-month high

The coke market in 2013 did not see any sign of weakness in the middle of last year and showed some strong upward momentum.

In the morning of January 21st, the main contract of the coke ** in the Dashang Group opened higher and higher at 1,305 yuan, to close at 1,881 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton, or an increase of 2.56%. Masukura had 27,406 lots. Although it fell back in the afternoon, it eventually fell. It closed at 1,864 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton.

Looking back at the trend in the past six months, since September last year, the 1305 contract price has gone up and the coke price has reached a new high of 6 months. Compared with September last year, the increase is close to 30%.

The rise in coke prices is indispensable for the rebar drive. In the past month, the price of the main contract of rebar ** has risen from RMB 3,400/ton to around RMB 4,000/ton, which has provided strong support for the coke market.

In addition, as for the spot market, since last week, the domestic steel mills' restocking behavior has continued, and the coke market as a whole has maintained an upward trend. The main producing areas have risen by more than RMB 30-50/ton. Taking the major trading markets in North China as an example, the Quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan reached the factory price of 1,780 to 1,820 yuan/ton, up by 20 yuan/ton, and the second-level factory price was 1,720 to 1,750 yuan/ton, up by 35 yuan/ton; Metallurgical coke car plate price 1650 ~ 1700 yuan / ton, secondary metallurgical coke ex-factory price of 1470 yuan / ton, also rose; Tianjin delivery level coke offer reached 1880 yuan / ton, to ** market prices.

According to the analysis, coking prices not only rose from 1,350 yuan/tonne at the end of September last year to 1,865 yuan/ton at present, but also increased by more than 20% from spot prices, mainly due to cost factors, policy expectations, and mergers and acquisitions of coke companies. Positive factors boosted.

The policy factor that has a relatively large impact on the market is that from January 1 this year, the coke export tariffs and quotas were all cancelled and converted into export license payments. The control over the total amount of coke exports gradually eased, and the external demand market for coke gradually eased. Exports will help alleviate domestic coke market output and excess production pressure. As coke export tariffs were as high as 40% before the cancellation, coke exports totaled less than 1 million tons last year, and this figure will improve in 2013. .

Looking back at 2012, from mid-February to early September, the debt crisis in Europe continued to intensify, the domestic economic growth slowed down significantly, and the demand for coke was weak. Even the coke price of the exchange continued to decline from RMB 2100/tonne to RMB 1,300/tonne. The drop reached 38%, and the coking industry experienced a loss in the industry. The loss was once over 50%.

Since mid-September last year, the steel market has rebounded significantly, and coke prices have also rebounded. From 1300 yuan/ton to 1,800 yuan/ton, the continuous rise in coke prices has led to an increase in the operating rate of enterprises, and the company’s losses have been eased.

The recovery rate of coke industry can be seen from the coke rate. The monitoring data show that the capacity utilization rate of enterprises with less than 1 million tons increased from 61% in the third quarter of last year to 77% in early January of this year, and the output was 1 million to 200. Tens of thousands of tons of companies have increased from 62% to 79%, while those with more than 2 million tons of output have increased from 70% to 87%. Not only that, the coke inventories of the recently coking companies are also in a historically low position, and the shipments are in good condition, supporting the rise in prices.

Guangfa ** analysis pointed out that in the long run, infrastructure and real estate investment are expected to increase, steel demand is expected to increase, driving domestic demand for coke further rise. At the same time, coke production has not continued to increase substantially, and the supply and demand of coke is expected to continue to improve.

Some analysts believe that although the increased export volume is likely to further push up domestic coke prices, export volume is still a very small fraction compared to domestic production. If domestic downstream demand cannot continue to increase, high operating rates will continue to increase. After the market price continues to rise will form a constraint.

It is worth noting that the oversupply of coke is still difficult to change. According to data from the China Coking Industry Association, China's coke production capacity has exceeded 500 million tons, which is estimated to be maintained at 550 million tons, while coke production is expected to reach 440 million tons in 2012. New production capacity will be greater than the eliminated backward production capacity, and the overcapacity pattern. to not fix.

A coke industry analyst told the reporter: “The background of the huge increase in production capacity and the oversupply of the coking industry has not changed. This is still an important factor restricting the rise in coke prices. Although the demand for coke in the downstream of the The process of inventories can be accelerated, but the demand off-season is still likely to come. Coke prices are expected to remain volatile for a long period of time. In particular, coke may be lightened down, or forecasted to be short-term.