Coke demand is facing a severe test

After mid-August, the effect of coal coke steel make-up storage was transmitted from the downstream to the upstream. Although the price of upstream coking coal coke rises under the inventory stimulus, the spot price of rebar begins to decline, and the downstream demand for downstream steel has not accepted the rebar to continue to rebound. . After the “Golden 9 Silver 10” peak season, the demand situation has become more severe, and the possibility of a sharp increase in the thread is very small. The spot price of coal coke may follow the spot price of thread.

Analysis of Fundamental Factors 1. Steel stocks squeezing from steel traders to traders from the trade link Data from October 25 show that social stocks of rebar and steel social inventories fell slightly, and rebar stocks fell 2.76% quarter-on-quarter, and steel society stocks fell by 2.0% from the previous month . Although steel social inventories fell, and the steel stocks of steel mills showed on October 20th, steel stocks of key steel mills totaled 13.7880 million tons, which was an increase of 2.12% from the previous month, and the stock rose by 7.05% in early October. The decline in social stocks is due to the rise of steel mill stocks. The downturn in spot prices is pushing steel stocks from the trade link to the steel mills.

2. Decline in crude steel production slows down coke demand Steel mills have started to cut production due to low steel prices. In the first half of October, the average daily output of crude steel fell from 2,152,000 tons to 2,218,100 tons, which fell by 1.11% in the first half of the year. In mid-October, the daily average production of crude steel fell by 1% again. The decline in crude steel production will certainly reduce the demand for coke.

Since 3.8 months, coke inventories have risen significantly. Inventory data for the week of October 25 showed that coke inventories increased by 1.54% month-on-month, and year-on-year growth rate rose from 23.55% to 28.07%. Among them, coke port inventories rose by 2.5% and coke inventories in coking plants increased by 4.36%. Since the end of August, the number of coke inventories available for steel mills has also increased from 9 days to 14 days.

4. The coke production in the later period will still increase After the updated coke production in September rose by 2.78% month-on-month, the coking coal inventories of the coking plant are currently at a high level, the current level is 36.4% higher than the low point of July 12, and the output of coke in the later period will be Only increase.

Risk factor analysis 1. The spot price of rebar has been stabilized Since mid-August, spot prices of rebar have been oscillating and seldom rebounded. However, the spot price of rebar has continued to rise recently. The national average price has risen by RMB 30/t, Beijing has risen by RMB 60/t, and Tianjin has risen by RMB 80/t. Beijing and Tianjin have led the country. It is not yet certain that the rebound of the spot price is due to the fact that the winter storage or downstream demand suddenly reverses the seasonal start and investors should pay close attention.

The real estate data improved in 2.9 months in July, the market rumors of real estate ** gate, while the new start-up data in July is better, there is no real estate ** gate in August, following August data show that weak demand for real estate. However, real estate data for September shows that real estate demand may improve. In terms of specific data, the year-on-year growth rate of new housing starts rose from -20.14% to 41.29%, and the newly-started housing development rate rose by -9.17% to 12.21%. Due to the lag in real estate data, the spot price of thread in September did not improve.

3. There may be blowouts in railway investment at the end of the year. In July, the railway company increased its investment plan this year from 650 billion to 690 billion. On August 19, the State Council also announced the "Opinions on Reforming the Railway Investment System and Accelerating the Construction of Railways," and called for accelerating the construction of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" railway to strive for the over-fulfillment of the 2013 investment plan. The latest statistics show that from January to September this year, the railway investment totaled 369.71 billion yuan, which means that the railway investment will reach 320.228 billion yuan this year from October to December, and the monthly average investment will increase by 160% from January to September. If the investment plan is exceeded, the average monthly investment growth will be even higher.

Technical Analysis From a technical point of view, the current rebound in the coke index faces two resistance levels. One is the level of resistance near 1600, and the other is the trend resistance level formed by the oscillation on August 23. Investors can consider placing empty orders between 1600 and 1650.