China's polysilicon and wafer production ranks first in the world

       In 2012, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry grew slowly, and the industry gradually resumed rational development. Although China's production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components still ranks first in the world, the growth rate has dropped significantly, and even negative growth has occurred. In 2012, China's polysilicon production was about 71,000 tons, down 15.5% year-on-year; polysilicon imports were about 83,000 tons, up 27.4% year-on-year, and imports reached 2.1 billion US dollars. The production capacity of silicon wafers exceeded 40GW, the output reached 28GW, up 16.7% year-on-year; the output of modules was 23GW, up 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 90.5 percentage points lower than that in 2011. The global proportion reached 61.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous year. Although the export volume has increased, the annual solar cell export volume was 12.79 billion US dollars, down 43.6% year-on-year.


Development of the photovoltaic industry

(I) Overview of the development of global solar photovoltaic industry

In 2012, the global solar photovoltaic industry was generally in a low-speed development trend.

Polysilicon

In 2012, the global polysilicon production capacity reached 400,000 tons, and the output reached 234,000 tons, which was slightly lower than the 240,000 tons in 2011. The output of electronic grade polysilicon was about 25,000 tons, and the rest was solar grade polysilicon. The price of polysilicon fell rapidly, with a drop of more than 30%. By the end of 2012, the spot price of polysilicon was about US$16/kg, which was lower than the average production cost of polysilicon enterprises in the industry. Affected by this, most small and medium-sized polysilicon enterprises have stopped production, even if the enterprises still starting work have reduced production to varying degrees, the industry as a whole lost. The expansion of polysilicon enterprises has been curbed, and they have suspended or delayed expansion plans. For example, the commissioning time of the US Wacker's US plant has been postponed until 2015, and South Korea's OCI has suspended construction of the P4 and P5 plants. Reduced costs and differentiated development have become the current mainstream development direction.

In 2012, China ranked first in the world with nearly 71,000 tons of production, the United States ranked second with 59,000 tons, and the following South Korea, Germany and Japan produced 41,000 tons, 40,000 tons and 13,000 tons respectively. And South Korea mainly produces solar grade polysilicon, Japan mainly supplies electronic grade polysilicon, and both the United States and Germany. In terms of production capacity, China ranks first in the world with a production capacity of 190,000 tons, the United States ranks second with nearly 86,000 tons of production capacity, South Korea ranks third with 57,000 tons of production capacity, and Germany and Japan have about 55,000 tons. 19,000 tons. From the perspective of development momentum, the situation of China, the United States, South Korea and Germany has gradually formed, while Japan has focused on the market segment of electronic grade polysilicon.

From the perspective of enterprise development, global industrial concentration has become higher. In 2012, Wacker Company of Germany ranked first in the world with a production capacity of 38,000 tons. China's Jiangsu Zhongneng Company took the second place with a production capacity of 37,000 tons, followed by South Korea's OCI, US Hemlock and US REC with 33,000 tons and 3.1 respectively. Ten thousand tons and 21,000 tons rank three to five. The output of the top ten polysilicon enterprises accounted for 79% of the total global production. The top four polysilicon enterprises accounted for 45% of the global production capacity, and the output accounted for 59.4% of the global total. Compared with 2011, the concentration increased by 5 percentage points.

2. Battery / component aspects

In 2012, the global solar cell production capacity exceeded 70GW (including thin film batteries), an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, and the output reached 37.4GW, which was 6.3% higher than the 35GW in 2011. The top ten global solar cell shipments have reached the GW level. In terms of battery type, the crystalline silicon battery yield is about 33 GW, the thin film battery is about 4 GW, and the concentrating battery is about 100 MW. In terms of regional distribution, mainland China ranks first in the world with 21 GW output, followed by China Taiwan, Japan and Malaysia. It is worth noting that, relying on its strong semiconductor industry base and the influence of the US “double-reverse” and other factors, the output of Taiwan in China increased by 22% year-on-year, much higher than the global growth. From the perspective of production companies, the world's top ten companies have reached the production of battery chips.
14.6GW, accounting for 39% of global production, up 2% year-on-year. Among the top ten companies, 9 are crystalline silicon battery manufacturers, and only one thin-film battery company in the US First Solar; in terms of regional distribution, China and Taiwan have a total of 8 seats, and the other two are First Solar of the United States and Hanwha Group of South Korea, among which China Yingli ranked first in the world with 2GW of production, First Solar of the United States ranked second with 1.9GW, and China Jingao ranked third in the world with 1.8GW.

In terms of components, the global production capacity reached more than 70GW, and the output reached 37.2GW, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. From the perspective of regional distribution, China is still the largest producer with a production capacity of 23 GW, mainly crystalline silicon cells (98%), and Europe with nearly 4 GW (20% of thin cells). ), Japan ranks third with about 2.4GW of production (of which thin film batteries account for 25%). In terms of industrial concentration, the top ten component companies with the largest global shipments produced 13.9 GW, accounting for 38% of the total output, up 2 percentage points year-on-year. Among the ten photovoltaic companies, China has six seats, the United States has two seats, and Japan and South Korea each have one. Among them, China Yingli ranked first with nearly 2.3GW of production, First Solar of the United States ranked second with 1.9GW, and Suntech, Trina and Artes ranked third to fifth with 1.7GW, 1.7GW and 1.6GW respectively. Due to the absence of substantial industrial integration in 2012, the overcapacity of production capacity and the deterioration of the international trade environment, market competition has intensified. In 2012, product prices continued to decline, and component prices were nearly US$1 at the beginning of the year. The price fell to 0.65 US dollars / watt at the end of the year, the decline rate reached 35%, the product price has been lower than the comprehensive cost of the product (including manufacturing, management and financial costs), putting great pressure on the production and operation of photovoltaic enterprises.

3. Application market

Overall, in 2012, the global PV industry is facing serious difficulties in development, and market growth lacks motivation. European countries such as Germany and Italy, which are traditionally installed, have cut their PV subsidies drastically. The European PV installation market has fallen for the first time in the past 10 years. However, with the start of emerging photovoltaic markets such as China, the United States, Japan, India, etc., the global installed capacity of photovoltaics is still growing compared with 2011, but the growth rate has dropped significantly. In 2012, the global installed capacity of new photovoltaics reached 32.0GW, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by about 60% compared with 2011. This is the lowest growth rate of the global PV installation market in the past 10 years. Among them, the new installed capacity in Europe is 18.2GW, accounting for 56.9% of the newly installed capacity in the world, accounting for about 13% lower than that in 2011. In terms of installed capacity, Germany returned to the top in the world with 7.6GW of installed capacity, but only increased by 2% year-on-year; while China's installed capacity increased to 4.5% in the world with a installed capacity of 4.5GW, and installed by 3.3GW in the US. The capacity ranked third in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 78.6%; Italy dropped from 3.0% in the world to the fourth in the world. As of the end of 2012, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics worldwide has exceeded 100GW.

(II) Overview of the development of China's solar photovoltaic industry

1. The growth rate of the industry has slowed down.

In 2012, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry grew slowly, and the industry gradually resumed rational development. Although China's production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components still ranks first in the world, the growth rate has dropped significantly, and even negative growth has occurred. In 2012, China's polysilicon production was about 71,000 tons, down 15.5% year-on-year; polysilicon imports were about 83,000 tons, up 27.4% year-on-year, and imports reached 2.1 billion US dollars. The wafer production capacity exceeded 40GW, and the output reached 28GW, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year, and the world accounted for 77.8%. The output of the module was 23GW, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year. The growth rate was 90.5 percentage points lower than that of 2011. The global proportion reached 61.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous year. Although the export volume has increased, the annual solar cell export volume was 12.79 billion US dollars, down 43.6% year-on-year.

2. Technology and cost have reached the international advanced level

In 2012, the technical level of China's photovoltaic industry was further improved, and the cost of products continued to decline. The international competitiveness of products continued to increase, the core technology links continued to break through, the production process continued to be optimized, and the scaled production stability was gradually improved. At present, the industrial conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon cells in China has reached 18.5% and 17.3%, respectively. The high-efficiency battery efficiency of the main photovoltaic enterprises has reached more than 20%, and the mass production efficiency has also exceeded 19%; the high-efficiency polycrystalline technology has been produced from wind and water, and the mass production efficiency is over 18%, which is at the global leading level. The cost of battery components has been declining. By the end of 2012, the production cost of some enterprises has dropped below 0.6 US dollars/watt. Some polysilicon enterprises have reached the international advanced level of nearly 19 US dollars/kg.

3. The domestic PV application market is expanding rapidly

On the one hand, with the sharp decline in the price of photovoltaic products, the installation cost of photovoltaic systems has gradually decreased, and the return on investment of operating photovoltaic power plants has increased; on the other hand, due to the influence of international trade protectionism, the export environment of photovoltaic module products in China has deteriorated. To this end, the relevant departments of the country will vigorously promote the construction of domestic distributed photovoltaic power generation systems based on the on-grid subsidy policy of the original photovoltaic power generation. At the same time, the photovoltaic installation in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development” announced in early 2012 will be installed in 2015. The planning target is raised to 20GW. The industry expects that if the distributed power generation promotion is relatively smooth, the installed target may reach more than 35GW. Therefore, China's PV application market has expanded rapidly in 2011. In 2012, China's new PV installed capacity reached 4.5GW, an increase of 66.7% year-on-year, and has become the world's second largest PV market.

4. The pace of industrial restructuring is accelerating

Affected by international trade protectionism, some enterprises in China are planning to implement industrial transfer and avoid trade risks by establishing factories overseas. At the same time, the development of the global market is also moving towards multi-faceted, diversified and diversified, and no longer limited to the European market. In addition, in order to meet the needs of industrial development and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, the business scope of some PV companies has gradually expanded from the previous battery component manufacturing to downstream system integration and even power plant operations. On the one hand, it tries to drive the sales of its own PV modules through power station construction; on the other hand, it intends to diversify its business and get involved in power station investment and operation to obtain higher investment yield. At the same time, large power generation groups have begun to enter the battery manufacturing industry to varying degrees in order to control product quality and cost. For example, Guodian and China Power Investment Corporation have been involved in the manufacturing process from silicon materials to battery components. Datang, Huaneng and Huadian are also planning to enter the photovoltaic cell manufacturing process, which will inevitably further intensify the competitive pressure of the domestic PV market.

5. Industry integration momentum appears

In 2012, as the industrial development environment deteriorated further, PV companies experienced bankruptcy and bankruptcy, and the industry consolidation momentum has already emerged. After a long period of large-scale production cut-off process, a considerable number of PV companies' capital chain broke, and the risk of bankruptcy collapse increased. In 2012, a group of enterprises such as Vosges Photovoltaic and Ningxia Sunshine declared bankruptcy. In 2013, Wuxi Suntech, the world's largest manufacturer of photovoltaic modules, also announced bankruptcy and reorganization, which is the first large-scale photovoltaic company in China to declare bankruptcy and reorganization.

Problem

While China's PV industry continues to develop, there are also some outstanding problems:

1. The situation of imbalance between supply and demand and oversupply is still serious

Although the rapid expansion of the whole industry was obviously curbed in 2012, the market growth rate of the year also fell sharply, and the total installed capacity only maintained single-digit growth. It is still difficult to digest the excess capacity that had been formed before 2011. There has been no substantial change in the situation of imbalance between supply and demand and oversupply. As a result, prices of various types of photovoltaic products fell further on the basis of the decline in 2011. From January to December 2012, the prices of polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules fell by 50.8%, 28.3%, 27.7% and 31.6%, respectively. This has led to a lot of hard-won PV companies.

2. The domestic market is still growing, and its dependence on overseas markets is still high.

In order to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, China has increased its support for the photovoltaic application market. It has launched two batches of “Golden Sun” demonstration projects and raised the “12th Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development” to 20GW. Measures such as the construction of a distributed photovoltaic power generation large-scale application demonstration zone have been adopted, but the basic pattern of relying on foreign markets has not been fundamentally changed. In 2012, nearly 80% of China's total PV product production still needs to be sold to overseas markets, while 78% of total exports are sold to European and American markets with high trade barriers.

3. Insufficient technical base and new technology reserves, there are hidden concerns in the core competitiveness of the industry

Although in the industrialization level of crystalline silicon solar cells, the photovoltaic industry is one of the few industries in China that can compete with the international advanced level, but at the forefront of basic technology research, laboratory research and development, key and high-end production equipment manufacturing, In terms of research and development of new generation photovoltaic cells, we still have a gap with the world's advanced level. The technical base of the industry and the reserves of new technologies are insufficient, and the core competitiveness of sustainable industries is not strong. It should be said that the long-term development of China's photovoltaics still has hidden concerns.

4. International trade disputes increase and external development environment deteriorates

In 2012, the EU, India and other countries successively launched a "double-reverse" investigation on China's photovoltaic cell products, which greatly affected the export of China's photovoltaic cell products and further deepened the crisis of China's photovoltaic industry. In May and October 2012, the US Department of Commerce made preliminary and final rulings on China's PV battery “double-reverse” survey, and imposed a countervailing duty of 2.9% to 4.7% on China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and PV modules. The battery imposes an anti-dumping duty of 31.1% to approximately 250%. In September and November 2012, the European Commission decided to launch anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on China's photovoltaic cell products, covering almost all of the upstream and downstream products of the photovoltaic industry, including wafers, cells, and components. Photovoltaic glass was also added in February. The EU market is the main target of China's PV battery product exports. In 2012, China's PV battery products accounted for more than 65% of exports. If the EU finally ruled that China's PV cell products are dumped, the adverse impact on China's PV industry will be greater than that of the US. This is undoubtedly worse for China's photovoltaic industry, and may lead to difficulties in the development of China's photovoltaic industry in the next few years.

Suggestions on industrial development

In general terms, the following aspects should be done:

First, strengthen policy guidance to regulate industrial development, curb blind expansion and vicious competition, persist in supporting and strengthening, and promote intensive development.

Second, resolutely expand the domestic demand market, develop diversified PV applications, focus on implementing on-grid tariffs and grid-connected policies, promote distributed PV applications, and focus on expanding the self-sufficient PV market.

The third is to focus on innovation and upgrading of enterprises, enhance the core competitiveness of the industry, accumulate and reserve the sustainable development potential of the industry, and strengthen upstream and downstream cooperation.

The fourth is to respect the laws of the market, support the support of the superiority and the inferiority, attach importance to cultivating key enterprises, correctly guide mergers and acquisitions, and maintain international competitive advantages.

The fifth is to actively cultivate "internal strength", improve the development environment of the industry, strengthen the construction of supporting mechanisms such as standard testing, strengthen foreign exchanges and cooperation, coordinate the handling of trade frictions, improve the industry management system and mechanisms, and strengthen departmental coordination management and industry organization.

Future development

After the global new PV installed capacity exceeded 30GW in 2011, the global installed capacity of new PVs exceeded 30GW in 2012, and the cumulative installed capacity of PV exceeded 100GW for the first time. However, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of new PV installed capacity has slowed down noticeably, and the PV market has come to a crossroads. At the same time, some analysis shows that those countries and regions with abundant lighting resources and photovoltaic power generation costs comparable to the peak power generation price of fossil energy can reach 60-250GW of new installed capacity in 2020, and will reach 260-1100GW in 2030.

Globally, the European market has dominated the global PV market for many years, but recently European countries have cut PV subsidies, which has greatly affected their expectations. As the growth potential of other countries and regions continues to emerge, the focus of the global PV application market is gradually shifting to emerging markets such as China, the United States and Japan. Driven by energy demand, the countries and regions with the fastest growth in the PV market in the future will be China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North America.

Looking forward to 2013, due to the economic environment, reducing PV on-grid tariffs will remain the basic policy of major European countries. Germany's installed capacity may not continue to maintain a high level of 7GW, while Italy is also difficult to achieve 3GW installed capacity, Europe's new PV installed capacity will be further reduced to 13GW on the basis of 2012, adding new PV installed capacity worldwide The market share is likely to fall below 50% for the first time. In contrast, the new PV installed capacity in China, the United States, Japan and other countries will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2013. Especially in China, the installed capacity of new PV in 2013 is likely to reach 8GW, or even 10GW, becoming the world's largest PV application market. The United States is expected to continue its growth in 2012 and is expected to exceed 5GW in 2013. Japan will usher in the climax of the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power plants, and it is expected to break through 4GW in 2013. The installed capacity of new PV in these three countries is expected to account for more than 50% of the global market in 2013. From the current situation, the growth of the PV market outside Europe can temporarily make up for the decline of the European PV market. Therefore, the scale of the PV application market will continue to expand in the future, but the growth rate will slow down significantly compared with a few years ago.

As the growth rate of the photovoltaic application market is lower than the growth rate of photovoltaic module production capacity, the imbalance between supply and demand that has occurred since 2011 is difficult to fundamentally change in a certain period of time. The price of photovoltaic products still keeps falling, and the situation facing the photovoltaic industry is still It will be more severe. Although the price of photovoltaic products is expected to stabilize in 2013, it will remain at a low level. The survival pressure of PV companies is increasing day by day. Bankruptcy and bankruptcy will become the norm in a period of time. The integration and restructuring trend among PV companies will become more obvious in the future.

The rapid decline in component costs has brought greater expectations for product price reductions. Especially in the current market where supply exceeds demand and product homogeneity is strong, lowering prices has become the most direct means of securing the market; from another perspective It can be seen that if the production capacity is not fully utilized, the product cost will rise relatively, and in the case of a rapid decline in market prices, the product will not be sold in time will also cause inventory depreciation, so in this extraordinary period, the protection of "cash flow" or " Stop loss will become an effective means of "profit", in which case price competition will become more intense. However, price competition also has its beneficial side, which can promote further cost reduction to promote the rapid decline of photovoltaic power generation costs, which is conducive to the early realization of affordable Internet access; at the same time, some enterprises that do not have competitive advantages will be eliminated by the market, so that The development of the industry is healthier.

It must be pointed out that price competition is a double-edged sword. Benign competition will promote the progress of the industry, but excessive and vicious competition will endanger the development of the industry. In particular, excessive competition may play the role of "bad money to drive out good money". side effect. From the cost analysis, we can see that the production costs of China's major PV companies are very close. In the case of fierce price competition, it is highly probable that excessive competition will occur (product prices are lower than production costs) and must be highly vigilant. Otherwise, even the dominant enterprises will be dragged down, which will ultimately endanger the healthy development of the entire industry.

Under the pressure of price, the entry barrier for the photovoltaic industry has gradually increased, which will inevitably prevent the entry of some enterprises and help the industrial integration. Due to the hype of strategic emerging industry concepts and the attractive market prospects of potential PV applications, some companies still want to enter the field through the industry downturn. However, in view of the above reasons, the major PV companies have almost reached the limit in the control of production costs, especially non-silicon costs, and must be investigated in every aspect of the supply chain, so that newcomers have to hesitate three points. At the same time, as another aspect of improving cost performance, companies are also actively paying attention to the improvement of product performance and increasing investment. Especially in the case of high homogeneity of current products, high-efficiency batteries are gradually moving out of the laboratory to industrialization. In 2012, the expansion of major enterprises in China was concentrated on high-efficiency batteries. Therefore, when considering the entry into the field, foreign entrants need to consider the product differentiation in addition to the cost control, that is, whether higher quality battery products can be produced at relatively low cost. Undoubtedly, it has set a threshold for newcomers and increased the cost of entry.

Led Grow Light For Indoor Plants

Rhein lighting has developed a new line of Led Grow Light for indoor plants. It is equipped with Samsung LM301B diodes and built-in FORT UL driver. The grow light achieves the efficiency 2.8 μmol/J and higher average PPFD with 1300 μmol/s.

The full spectrum grow light is proven high-yield full spectrum(Top-bin Samsung LM301B 3000k+6500k) with enhanced deep red 660nm. Born for big buds,Rapid plant response from seed to flower,speeds up flowering time and boost yields.Easy dimming design meets needs of indoor plants at different stage of growth.

The dimmable grow light bulb could daisy chain-max up to 80 lights, controller available,especially beneficial for home,grow tent,grow room, greenhouse, garden,vertical Racks,hydroponic,soil growth.

Rhein lighting is a professional manufacturer of Led Panel Light, led slim downlight, led slim panel light, Led Strip Light, led rope light, led plant light and led grow light.

Double Ended Grow Light,Sun Systems Grow Lights 1000W,1000 Watt Grow Lights For Sale,Thousand Watt Led Grow Lights

Rhein Lighting Technology Co.,Ltd. , https://www.rheinlighting.com