The price of the mine only rises and falls below 150 dollars.
2023-03-01 20:06:19
Although China Steel Association expressed the fact that iron ore supply and demand have quietly changed, the domestic spot iron ore price has not stopped rising in the near future. On August 12, data showed that the CFR price (FOB) of 63.5% Indian powder mine in the spot market rose to US$155 to US$157 per ton, which exceeded the market rumors of iron ore suppliers such as Rio Tinto and Japan and South Korea. Steel companies reached a pricing agreement of $147 per ton in the third quarter.
Objectively speaking, the domestic steel price has recovered in the past month, giving the price reason for the price increase of spot iron ore. According to the statistics of the Department of Market Operation and Control of the Ministry of Commerce, as of last week, domestic steel prices have rebounded for the third consecutive week, with a 1.4% increase over the previous week. Among them, construction steel prices have increased significantly.
However, it is worth noting that the reporter compared the trend of one month and found that the rebound of iron ore prices far exceeds the price increase of some steel products. Take the high line as an example, its increase is only about 10%, which is lower than the spot iron ore's nearly 20% increase in the past month.
"The elasticity of iron ore prices has always been an indisputable fact. But in China's iron ore market, the bigger problem is still speculation." Yesterday, Lange Steel Network analyst Li Wei told the International Finance News reporter, In the recent iron ore price increase, traders are important drivers that cannot be ignored. The speculative price hikes that have been promoted by speculation have attracted more traders to join the hype.
One side of the evidence is that there are news that the number of iron ore import enterprises announced by the customs has reached 204, far exceeding the 112 imported by the China Iron and Steel Association. In addition, customs data shows that as of last week, the inventory of iron ore in the main 19 ports in China was as high as 79 million tons, exceeding the inventory of 70 million tons used by the China Iron and Steel Association to counter iron ore suppliers last year.
"But fundamentally, the source of market speculation is still from iron ore suppliers such as Rio Tinto, as well as market monopoly behavior." Li Wei further pointed out that on the one hand, in order to maintain the high price of iron ore, large miners passed The various operational methods in the shipping market have caused the illusion of a large increase in demand in China, which has raised the price of iron ore. On the other hand, this behavior of raising the price of minerals has increased the psychological expectations of domestic speculators, which in turn stimulated the rise in mineral prices.
"In other words, the quarterly pricing agreement, that is, the operation mode of pricing by futures price is the direct cause of the continuous speculation in the iron ore market. This is also the pain of iron ore financialization." Li Wei also pointed out. Previously, at the China Steel Association's industry information conference, Luo Bingsheng, vice president of China Steel Association, pointed out that the existing pricing mechanism lacks authority and cannot cover the real situation of iron ore prices and demand in the Chinese market.
In addition, the relevant report issued by the General Administration of Customs also mentioned the worrying market changes in the iron ore market: “The quarterly pricing – iron ore index – iron ore swap contract†financial chain is forming, price fluctuations Uncertainty will increase. Since the beginning of this year, the three major mines have gradually broken the psychological defense of steel companies with quarterly and monthly pricing, which is highly correlated with the spot market, and pushed the iron ore sand to become 'financialized'."
However, He Rongliang, an analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, firmly believes that the spot price of iron ore may face adjustment risks in September. “Firstly, the cost of steelmaking has increased and the operating rate of the industry has continued to be low. Secondly, the production of domestic iron ore has risen sharply and the inventory has remained high.†He believes that in the fourth quarter, the price of the mine is lower than expected. The upside will be suppressed.
"If it is still the long-term agreement price method in the past years, the speculation space in the spot market will not be as big as this year." Li Wei pointed out, but now, Chinese steel companies have to face the market risk brought by fluctuations.
Regarding the status quo, experts have suggested that China should establish an independent iron ore price index to counter the Platts iron ore index promoted by the three major miners. However, Li Wei believes that this kind of financial operation is not feasible. "First of all, from the current situation in China, China can't keep up with the rhythm of financialization. Secondly, in the iron ore market where there are policies and countermeasures, China is not the top three iron ore in terms of strategy. Stone supplier's opponent," he said.
"It still needs to focus on itself." Li Wei said. On the one hand, we will increase the concentration of China's steel industry so as to have more say in the negotiations; on the other hand, continue to develop mines with autonomy, learn from Japan, increase the proportion of equity mines, and focus on developing iron ore mines in Africa and the Middle East. Stone suppliers have not fully penetrated the market; in addition, adhere to their own rhythm, and resolutely oppose the iron ore suppliers continue to promote the financialization of iron ore.
Objectively speaking, the domestic steel price has recovered in the past month, giving the price reason for the price increase of spot iron ore. According to the statistics of the Department of Market Operation and Control of the Ministry of Commerce, as of last week, domestic steel prices have rebounded for the third consecutive week, with a 1.4% increase over the previous week. Among them, construction steel prices have increased significantly.
However, it is worth noting that the reporter compared the trend of one month and found that the rebound of iron ore prices far exceeds the price increase of some steel products. Take the high line as an example, its increase is only about 10%, which is lower than the spot iron ore's nearly 20% increase in the past month.
"The elasticity of iron ore prices has always been an indisputable fact. But in China's iron ore market, the bigger problem is still speculation." Yesterday, Lange Steel Network analyst Li Wei told the International Finance News reporter, In the recent iron ore price increase, traders are important drivers that cannot be ignored. The speculative price hikes that have been promoted by speculation have attracted more traders to join the hype.
One side of the evidence is that there are news that the number of iron ore import enterprises announced by the customs has reached 204, far exceeding the 112 imported by the China Iron and Steel Association. In addition, customs data shows that as of last week, the inventory of iron ore in the main 19 ports in China was as high as 79 million tons, exceeding the inventory of 70 million tons used by the China Iron and Steel Association to counter iron ore suppliers last year.
"But fundamentally, the source of market speculation is still from iron ore suppliers such as Rio Tinto, as well as market monopoly behavior." Li Wei further pointed out that on the one hand, in order to maintain the high price of iron ore, large miners passed The various operational methods in the shipping market have caused the illusion of a large increase in demand in China, which has raised the price of iron ore. On the other hand, this behavior of raising the price of minerals has increased the psychological expectations of domestic speculators, which in turn stimulated the rise in mineral prices.
"In other words, the quarterly pricing agreement, that is, the operation mode of pricing by futures price is the direct cause of the continuous speculation in the iron ore market. This is also the pain of iron ore financialization." Li Wei also pointed out. Previously, at the China Steel Association's industry information conference, Luo Bingsheng, vice president of China Steel Association, pointed out that the existing pricing mechanism lacks authority and cannot cover the real situation of iron ore prices and demand in the Chinese market.
In addition, the relevant report issued by the General Administration of Customs also mentioned the worrying market changes in the iron ore market: “The quarterly pricing – iron ore index – iron ore swap contract†financial chain is forming, price fluctuations Uncertainty will increase. Since the beginning of this year, the three major mines have gradually broken the psychological defense of steel companies with quarterly and monthly pricing, which is highly correlated with the spot market, and pushed the iron ore sand to become 'financialized'."
However, He Rongliang, an analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, firmly believes that the spot price of iron ore may face adjustment risks in September. “Firstly, the cost of steelmaking has increased and the operating rate of the industry has continued to be low. Secondly, the production of domestic iron ore has risen sharply and the inventory has remained high.†He believes that in the fourth quarter, the price of the mine is lower than expected. The upside will be suppressed.
"If it is still the long-term agreement price method in the past years, the speculation space in the spot market will not be as big as this year." Li Wei pointed out, but now, Chinese steel companies have to face the market risk brought by fluctuations.
Regarding the status quo, experts have suggested that China should establish an independent iron ore price index to counter the Platts iron ore index promoted by the three major miners. However, Li Wei believes that this kind of financial operation is not feasible. "First of all, from the current situation in China, China can't keep up with the rhythm of financialization. Secondly, in the iron ore market where there are policies and countermeasures, China is not the top three iron ore in terms of strategy. Stone supplier's opponent," he said.
"It still needs to focus on itself." Li Wei said. On the one hand, we will increase the concentration of China's steel industry so as to have more say in the negotiations; on the other hand, continue to develop mines with autonomy, learn from Japan, increase the proportion of equity mines, and focus on developing iron ore mines in Africa and the Middle East. Stone suppliers have not fully penetrated the market; in addition, adhere to their own rhythm, and resolutely oppose the iron ore suppliers continue to promote the financialization of iron ore.
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