Rubber market rebounded in April

The domestic rubber and plastics market generally picked up in April, and most of the products’ prices have turned red. This is a wave of rally after the first quarterly drop. General plastics rebounded strongly, especially polyolefins, followed by special rubbers and synthetics. rubber.

A total of 16 kinds of goods in the China Rubber & Plastics Co., Ltd. increased month-on-month in the commodity price rise/sales list in April 2014. Among them, a total of 5% or more of the commodities had a price increase of 4.8% of the monitored goods; It is LLDPE (6.18%), PP (4.42%), LDPE (3.60%).

There were 5 kinds of commodities with a month-on-month decrease, and 1 product with a decrease of more than 5%, which accounted for 4.8% of the monitored goods of the sector; the products with the top 3 products decreased were natural rubber (standard) (-7.35%) and CPP. Film (-2.23%), butyl rubber (-1.90%). The average monthly increase or decrease is 1%.

The following specific analysis of the situation of the major sections:

In general plastics, the majority of general plastics products rose well this month. Polyolefins accounted for the top three gains. Since general plastics stabilized in late March and entered April, the market has been climbing all the way, except for the high cost of crude oil. The supply and demand side occupies a more important factor. More precisely, the narrowing of the supply side leads to an imbalance between supply and demand in the short term and the price rebounds. After the end of the spring film season, the demand side is not positive and the supply is tight. The situation was mainly caused by the maintenance of petrochemicals. In April, petrochemical plants began to enter the maintenance phase, and some petrochemical plants are still under overhaul. According to statistics, the overhauled polyethylene production capacity exceeded 1.5 million tons, the LLDPE overhauled production capacity was nearly 1.2 million tons, and the overhaul of polypropylene products involved more than 2 million tons. In April, one month of destocking, the overall inventory of general plastics was declining, up to 4 On the 30th of the month, the total inventory of major domestic PP and PE markets decreased by 4.02% from the end of March and increased by 2.54% from the same period of last year. In addition, imports in March were at normal levels, and import sources did not bring any significant impact to the domestic market, leading to the general plastics market as a whole to be in tight supply in April, and also foreshadowed price rebounds.

Most of the engineering plastics products also rose. This is the first time that the engineering plastics market has shown signs of recovery. Of the five engineering plastic products monitored by the business community, the prices of four products rose slightly: PA6 (1.95%), PC (0.91%), PA66 (0.74%), and PET (0.28%). The price rebound of engineering plastics products was concentrated in the middle and late April. Near the end of the month, the atmosphere of market trading turned weak, and downstream purchases in the market weakened. First of all, the price increase is mainly driven by the downstream. Such as bottle-grade PET, the late arrival of the traditional peak season, making PET prices finally emerge in the second quarter. However, most of the cost of products showed negatives, such as PET upstream ethylene glycol (-0.71%), PTA (-1.18%), PA66 upstream adipic acid (-3.33%), the cost of the entire industry chain and the downstream game This also made the price of most products rise only slightly. In addition, on the supply and demand side, the long-term demand for engineering plastic products is light, and the volume of transactions is relatively small, resulting in the status of dealers rarely pressing goods. Downstream on-demand procurement, dealers also maintain a relatively reasonable position in inventory. For PA6, most dealers report that the current inventory is at a relatively low level. Third, the price of some products was affected by the external supply of goods to Hong Kong. It showed that the prices were mixed and varied. For example, PC, the East China market was supported by the exchange rate, and some low-end materials continued to slowly increase, while the early arrival of the South China market was negative. Gradually released, the overall low-end material finishing. Traders actively hype, and the prices of local small singles are relatively high.

In the rubber market, the situation of the ice and the fire broke out, and special rubber and synthetic rubber rose significantly, while natural rubber fell heavily. Synthetic rubber market first suppressed and then increased. Synthetic rubber's rise was inseparable from petrochemical speculation. In the latter half of the month, Sinopec Corp. took the lead in raising the price of oil-filled 1712 rubber by 300 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, although the market remained at this time. In the doldrums, but the business mentality began to subtle changes, market quotations began to rise, the search for goods also increased, and the price of other brand varieties in some areas also began to increase, followed by Sinopec, CNPC raised the price of all synthetic rubber varieties, plus the end of the petrochemical companies Not much volume, the market offer was boosted by the small rise in supply prices. The entire rubber market atmosphere was driven. The natural rubber situation is not optimistic, fundamental changes in profits, natural rubber stocks in April increased again. As of April 15, Qingdao Bonded Area stocks increased to 360,200 tons, of which natural rubber stocks increased to 255,900 tons, natural rubber vulnerability has a long history, the current fundamentals and macroeconomic policies are all facing the pressure of natural rubber, despite The market has turned for the better, but the pre-sale decline has been overly heavy, and the market mentality has been damaged. At present, businesses are more likely to wait and see.

Xue Jinlei, an analyst in the rubber and plastics industry, believes that the warming up of most of the products in the rubber and plastic market in April was only a short-term behavior. First, the destocking process in the early stages of the market has achieved initial results, and the petrochemical manufacturers' overhaul, restrictions on billing, and price increases have also been pushed. The rise in the market was, in the final analysis, a decisive role played by the supply side, and there was no significant improvement in downstream demand. In particular, the real estate industry in the mainstream consumer sector was in a downturn, the operating rate was low, and it had a greater impact on the rubber and plastics market. It was destined to a certain extent. This wave of rally was just a flash in the pan. The fact that some petrochemical manufacturers lowered the price of some general-purpose plastic products near the end of the month also confirmed this view. From the current situation, the manufacturers' maintenance in May is still not small, and the possibility of continuing to implement the policy of limiting production and insuring price is partial. Large, but the downstream demand is still no significant improvement, relying on factory unilateral price increases on the market, after all, is limited, in particular, the current price rebounded to a high level, the downstream conflict is relatively heavy, the possibility of continued rise in the latter part is unlikely, is expected in May Rubber The market will narrow its adjustment downwards.