People's Daily Review: The new normal cannot be judged by good or bad

In 2014, Comrade Xi Jinping first proposed "China's economic development entered a new normal" and systematically elaborated on this. This is based on the scientific judgment made by the Party Central Committee with General Secretary Xi Jinping as the general secretary on the basis of an in-depth analysis of the changes in China's development conditions and developmental stages. Someone asked, is the new normal a good state or a bad state? This kind of question is unscientific. The new normal is not good or bad. Simply thinking that the new normal is good or bad is not objective, and it is not conducive to scientific work.
Regardless of the big pattern of the world economy or the development history of China, the development always shows a clear stage. From a spatial perspective, with the deep adjustment of the world economy during the post-international financial crisis, China's export advantages and participation in the international industrial division of labor face new challenges. From the time point of view, China's development has experienced several major periods from prosperity to decline. In the long history, the new state, the new pattern, and the new stage are constantly being formed. The new normal of China's economic development is a stage of this long process, and it is the inevitable result of the current long-term world economy and the staged characteristics of China's development and their interaction. This is in full accordance with the law of the spiraling movement of things.
Each stage of development has some distinctive features. These characteristics are highlighted in two dimensions: first, various constraints of development, including external and internal factors, material and non-material factors, and dominant institutional factors. The implicit institutional factors, etc.; the second is the development of the dynamic structure, the development method and the basic situation of economic operation that are compatible with various development constraints. The new normal of China's economic development can also be understood from these two dimensions. First of all, we must fully understand the changes in various constraints faced by development. After more than 30 years of rapid development in reform and opening up, the material and technological foundation of China's development has been significantly enhanced, but at the same time, the labor cost, resource and environmental costs of development have also increased significantly; the comprehensive national strength and its determined international discourse power have been significantly enhanced, but at the same time the development has been The elbows have also increased significantly. Secondly, it is necessary to fully realize that the evolution of development conditions and the evolution of the development stage have made China's economic development manifest three major characteristics: speed change, structural optimization and power conversion. It is necessary to fundamentally change the development mode and build a new dynamic mechanism. Due to rising costs in all aspects, low-cost development methods based on factors such as large-scale resources and labor must give way to high-productivity development methods that rely on technological advancement; in the context of profound changes in the international competition pattern, domestic demand is driving economic growth. The status and role of the people must be greatly improved; today people pay more attention to the living environment, pay more attention to social fairness and justice, require development to be more eco-friendly, and must be more inclusive; affected by various factors, the rapid growth of the economy will inevitably allow Located in the middle and high speed growth.
It can be seen that the new normal of economic development is an objective state, a state inevitable in the development of China's economy to the present stage, and an inherent necessity. If you simply think that it is good, think that many goals can be achieved naturally without efforts, and you will not be proactive in your work, and you may delay the development opportunity. If you simply think that it is bad, you will be pessimistic, disappointed, timid, and even use this as an excuse for passive inaction. Therefore, if we simply judge the value of the new normal, we will make mistakes in understanding, which may lead to non-commissioning, and then miss the important strategic opportunity period of China's development, and even fall into the "middle income trap."
We should objectively look at the new normal and adapt and lead the new normal on the basis of correctly understanding the new normal. Both should be full of confidence and should be fully estimated. The more we face the downward pressure on the economy, the more we should give full play to our subjective initiative and creatively promote development. Only by profoundly understanding, accurately grasping, and actively adapting to this objective state can we achieve good development performance. Therefore, the problem lies not in the good and bad of the new normal, but in the strength and weakness of our subjective initiative. Subjective initiative is strong, and challenges are transformed into positive ones; subjective initiative is weak, and opportunities may eventually become bad.
At present, the environment at home and abroad is complicated, and we must maintain our strategic strength, forge ahead, and push our country's development to a new level. The most effective way to adapt to the new normal is to formulate scientific, forward-looking strategies and targeted policies based on changes in environmental conditions and new development requirements. The most important thing is to formulate practical reforms and truly reform. As soon as possible, we will establish a new system in which the government and the market will show their brilliance and complement each other, and achieve higher quality, more efficient, fairer and more sustainable development.
(The author is the Minister of Development Strategy and Regional Economic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council)

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