Measurable parity on top of aluminum faces repair

[yesterday disk]

Day: Monday, Al1605 contract opened at 11,720 yuan / ton, the highest price of 11,830 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 11,680 yuan / ton, the closing price of 11,740 yuan / ton, up 0.34%; turnover of 165,000 hands, holdings of 212,000 hands.

Night plate: Monday, Al1605 contract opened at 11,750 yuan / ton, the highest price 11,880 yuan / ton, the lowest price 11,750 yuan / ton, the closing price of 11,860 yuan / ton, up 1.02%; turnover of 60,000 hands, 224,000 hand positions.

[Overnight disk]

The LME market was closed on Mondays due to holidays.

Basics

1. The spot price rose on Monday.

The Yangtze River spot is 11,730-11,770 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11,750 yuan / ton, ↑ 160 yuan / ton; Shanghai spot: 11,730-11,770 yuan / ton, the average price is 11,750 yuan / ton, ↑ 130 yuan / ton; Guangdong Nancun (South China ): 11,770-11,870 yuan / ton, average price 11,820 yuan / ton, ↑ 160 yuan / ton

2. On the week of the previous month, the spot price of 11,700 yuan will be transferred to the premium, and the main strength of 11,740 yuan will be converted to premium.

The Yangtze River had a price of 50 yuan/ton for 1604 liters of water in the previous month (the price was 70 yuan/ton in the previous trading day), and the main water price was 1605 yuan/ton (10/ton in the previous trading day).

3. SHFE aluminum futures stocks decreased by 3,416 tons on Monday.

SHFE designated delivery warehouse aluminum futures inventory at 229,000 tons, a decrease of 3416 tons, of which Guangdong stocks decreased by 2118 tons to 18,000 tons, Shanghai stocks reduced 873 tons to 86,000 tons, Jiangsu stocks decreased 275 tons to 101,000 tons, Zhejiang stock Reduce 150 tons to 24,000 tons.

4. Overnight news

[Xinhua News Agency: First-tier cities are striving to stabilize the property market and vigilant "virtual fire" transmission to second-tier cities] Xinhua News Agency issued a document saying that Shanghai and Shenzhen successively issued property market control policies in the past weekend. Subsequently, cities such as Nanjing and Wuhan, which have a higher pressure on house prices, also introduced new policies, respectively, and adjusted credit policies to stabilize market expectations. The industry believes that the first-tier cities and property markets will usher in a period of short-term volatility, the price of housing is expected to stabilize, not ups and downs. At the same time, we should be alert to "virtual fire" transmission to second-tier cities.

[Shenyang "New 22" Libao to the stock market]

On March 28th, the Shenyang Municipal Government issued the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market (Trial)”. The policies include the following: Individuals who purchase housing deed tax rates of more than 1% are financially granted by the municipal and district/county (city) levels. Subsidy: Increase the support for housing provident fund loans, adopt the policy of “knowing loans without recognizing houses”, and borrowers can use their common reserve funds with their parents or children to make loans and repay loans; originally residents of resettlement houses can be expected to achieve full “subsidy + incentive purchase” "Commercial housing"; supports college and secondary vocational school students, new graduates to buy a house, and so on. (Wall Street News)

[The average operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in China was around 75% in March, 13.46% higher than the previous month.]

Zhuochuang Information carried out research on the start-up of March of more than 100 remanufactured aluminum alloy ingot production enterprises in 13 regions including Hebei, Shandong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing and Guangdong. Henan, Liaoning, and Chongqing have the highest operating rates in the country. Among them, 90% are operating in Henan and 79% and 85% in Liaoning and Chongqing respectively. According to research, the average operating rate of remanufactured aluminum alloy ingots in various regions of the country in March was around 75%, an increase of 13.64% from the previous quarter. (China Aluminum Network)

【U.S. Economic Data】

In the United States, the February PCE price index was 1% year-on-year, which is expected to be 1%. The previous value of 1.3% was revised to 1.2%.

In the United States, the February price index for PCE was -0.1%, expected -0.1%, and the former 0.1%.

The US core PCE price index in February was 1.7% year-on-year, and is expected to be 1.8% from the previous value of 1.7%.

US core PCE price index in February was 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%

The United States Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNOW model: Revise down first-quarter GDP to 0.6%, which is expected to increase by 1.4%.

【technical analysis】

Shanghai Aluminum rallied on the daily high, hitting the highest intraday high of 11,830 yuan/ton. The night broke the day's high and the high reached 11860. The MACD red column increased, the DIFF on the DEA showed a gold fork pattern, and the KJD short-term indicators were long.

[operation suggestion]

Following a strong rebound on Friday, Shanghai Aluminum rose again yesterday and hit a new high in six months, rebounding more than 22% from its November low. We believe that seasonal demand and financial intervention are the main support for this round of gains. The short-term technical and aluminum market sentiment is still strong, focusing on the 12000-12200 range. However, on the whole, we believe that the above space is measurable, and the internal and external parity is facing repairs.