July Oil, Chemical Industry Economic Operation Report

Rapid growth in the total output value of the industry

Price increase narrows production and sales smoother Export growth but growth slows

Total investment growth in the industry remained stable in the third quarter to stabilize or have fluctuations

In July, the overall economic performance of the petroleum and chemical industries was good, production continued to grow at a relatively fast pace, the market supply was relatively abundant, and industry investment maintained steady growth. However, the growth rate of production and exports has slowed down significantly, and the increase in market prices has narrowed. Under the pressure of rising raw material prices and rising costs, some companies have difficulties in operating.

The growth rate of output value has obviously slowed down. As of the end of July, there were 35,773 enterprises above designated size in the industry. The total output value for the month reached 713.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, and the growth rate was 7.2% lower than the previous month. This is mainly due to price factors. The monthly oil and gas exploration and refining industry product prices have both fallen sharply. From January to July, the total output value of the industry was 4.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.2% year-on-year. Among them, the output value of new products was 263.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. In July, the output value of the oil and natural gas exploration and refining industry was 83.49 billion yuan and 194.47 billion yuan respectively, representing an increase of 24.4% and 14% year-on-year growth. The output value of the chemical industry increased by 24.5%, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month. In the chemical industry, the manufacturing industries of chemical mining, special chemicals, pesticides, and basic chemical raw materials grew rapidly. The year-on-year increase in output value was 40.8%, 28.1%, 27.9%, and 26.6% respectively; the output value of chemical fertilizers and rubber products industry were respectively year-on-year. The growth rate was 20.2% and 20.4%, the increase rate was 3.8% lower than that in June and 0.3% higher. From January to July, the output value of foreign-funded enterprises was 634.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%; the output value of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan companies was 300.95 billion yuan, an increase of 31.2% year-on-year; the output value of domestic-funded enterprises was 3.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.4. %.

The increase in the output of major products fell in July. Although the domestic production of major petrochemical products continued to maintain rapid growth, most of the increase in output fell back compared with the previous month. The output of 78 (species) key petrochemical and related products tracked by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation showed that there were 61 (species) products that grew and remained flat compared with the same period of last year, and 5 species decreased compared with the previous month; there were 17 species (species) decreased compared with the previous month. Five kinds were added last month. In July, crude oil production maintained a rapid growth, with output of 17.224 million tons, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year; natural gas production of 7.19 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year; crude oil processing volume of 35.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; refined oil output (gas, The total of coal and diesel, the same as below, was 21.318 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year. Due to sluggish growth in domestic and international market demand, in July, the nation’s fertilizer production fell for the first time this year, with output of 5.502 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The growth of pesticides has accelerated significantly. Output was 229 thousand tons, an increase of 29.4% over the previous year; ethylene production was 1.166 million tons, an increase of 33.6%; ** output was 5.571 million tons, an increase of 24.9%; synthetic resin production was 3.648 million tons, an increase of 20.1% over the previous year; 63.079 million, an increase of 9.5%; Soda ash production 1.654 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%; Methanol production 1.158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%; Ammonia production 4.068 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 5%; .

Price increase narrowed the smooth production and sales In July, the price increase of the petroleum and chemical industries narrowed significantly from the previous month. Among them, the price increase of oil and gas exploration industry fell the most. The industry price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in July, the price index for the oil and chemical industries was 109.69 points (the price for the same period in the previous year was 100), which fell by 9.5 points month on month. Among them, the oil and gas exploration industry price index was 118.54 points, down 26.6 points from the previous month; the petroleum processing industry price index was 112.41 points, down 10.2 points month-on-month; the chemical industry price index was 107.25 points, down 0.78 points month-on-month, the smallest decline. In July, the sales rate of products in the petroleum and chemical industries was 98.2%, up 0.16% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. The connection between production and sales was basically smooth.

Export growth slowed down In July, the value of exports from the petroleum and chemical industries was 38.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.8% from the previous quarter.

Investment maintains stable growth This year, the investment in fixed assets of the petroleum and chemical industries has maintained a steady growth. From January to July, the accumulated investment of the industry was 597.694 billion yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.5% higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the investment in the oil and natural gas exploration industry increased by 10.7%, the refining industry increased by 5.4%, the chemical industry increased by 19.9%, and investment in the special equipment manufacturing industry continued to decline, falling by 20.5%. In the chemical industry investment, the chemical mining industry increased by 60%, the synthetic material manufacturing industry increased by 54.7%, the inorganic salt manufacturing industry increased by 51.4%, the phosphate fertilizer industry increased by 47.2%, the dye manufacturing industry increased by 44.3%, and the rubber product industry increased. It also reached 35.3%, which greatly exceeded the average increase in industry investment.

At present, although the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries faces a very complex economic environment at home and abroad, the trend toward a stable and stable industry economy has not changed. According to the analysis of the current economic situation, it is estimated that the total output value of the industry in the third quarter will increase by about 24%, and it will increase by about 26% in August. Among them, the output value of the chemical industry in August increased by approximately 25.5%. The growth rate of the consumption of major products will obviously slow down. It is estimated that the apparent domestic consumption of crude oil in the third quarter will be approximately 108 million tons, an increase of 5.8%; the apparent consumption of refined oil will be approximately 60 million tons, an increase of approximately 1.2%; the apparent consumption of ethylene will be approximately 3.2 million tons, an increase of approximately 4.5%. %; The apparent consumption of synthetic resin was about 17.2 million tons, an increase of about 4.4%; the apparent consumption of chemical fertilizer was about 16.6 million tons, an increase of approximately 4.5%.

In the third quarter, the petrochemical market will focus on smooth operation, and short-term and local fluctuations may occur. Judging from the current economic environment and domestic and foreign market demand, in the third quarter, the domestic oil and chemical industry price level will gradually narrow, and the petrochemical market will generally show a stable operation trend, but the trend of each sector will be different. In the third quarter, the fertilizer market will be slightly better than the previous quarter, but the downturn will not be fundamentally reversed; the inorganic chemical raw material market will be mainly stable, and may show a steady upward trend; the organic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials market may experience downward shocks. The trend will increase its market competition.