Inventory pressure is still the biggest worry about the rise of tungsten prices

The price of tungsten concentrate has rebounded since October. The price of tungsten concentrate has rebounded since October this year, mainly because some powerful enterprises, including Minmetals and Jiangteng, believe that the price of tungsten concentrate has reached a low point, and the acquisition of tungsten concentrate in the market has been reduced, reducing tungsten. The circulation of the concentrate market, at the same time a considerable number of APT companies after the suspension of production in 2-3 months, until October to resume production and not purchase, from the beginning of October, Minmetals has the intention to improve the guidance offer.

However, the demand situation has not improved significantly. Demand for the tungsten market continued to be weak this year. For example, the output of cemented carbide in the first three quarters decreased by 20% year-on-year, and the export volume decreased by more than 30%. Although the overall economic situation improved slightly in the fourth quarter, the purchasing power of tungsten raw materials in the demand chain is still not strong. , showing a downward trend in the chain.

There was no contraction in the supply. At the same time, on the supply side, although the price of tungsten concentrate has slipped but the gross profit per ton is still 20,000-30,000, there is no reduction in production power in the mine. Compared with the supply and demand situation, the supply of tungsten concentrate in 2012 is greater than the demand of about 11,400 tons to 21,100 tons. I.

The inventory pressure on the industrial chain is relatively large, and the fundamentals are still ugly to see the continued upward momentum of tungsten prices. In combination with historical supply and demand, the inventory of tungsten industry chain was normal before 2012, but the 12-year supply redundancy was basically deposited in the form of inventory. It is estimated that there are at least 15,000 tons of tungsten concentrate stock and 10,000 tons of APT stock on the market. The improvement in the supply and demand of the late tungsten market does not constitute a significant pressure on the further rise in prices.

The potential production capacity of tungsten mines is still relatively abundant, and government regulation will play a key role in the future supply and demand pattern. Looking forward to the future production schedule of tungsten mines, the tungsten mines currently under construction include Hunan Yaogangxian Tungsten Mine, Xiamen Tungsten Jiangxi Tungsten Mine, Hunan Nonferrous Tungsten Mine, Zijin Mining Jilin Tungsten Mine. After the completion of these four mines, tungsten concentrate production capacity It will still increase by 12,000 tons. At the same time, the proven tungsten deposits that can potentially form production capacity include but are not limited to Wuning Dahutang tungsten deposit, Hunan Xintianling tungsten-nickel mine, Hunan non-ferrous Huangshaping mining area, etc. If these mining areas are put into production, then China The production capacity of tungsten concentrate will increase by another 20,000 tons. The actual delivery process depends on the government's regulation and control policy.