Has the most difficult time for photovoltaics passed?
Regarding the current situation of the PV market, Guotai Junan Securities gave the following report -
Recently, several leading PV companies have made plans for 2018Q4 and 2019:
1 Jinke Energy (JKS.N) said in the third quarter report conference that the demand in the fourth quarter of 18 is strong, may be in short supply, the company's 19-year order is very good;
2 Shen Haoping, chairman of Zhonghuan (002129), said in an exclusive interview with Securities Times that “12% of production capacity will be signed in 2019 in Decemberâ€;
Li Rongguo, chairman of Longji (601012), said in an interview with the media that "we have confidence in the market and confidence in our own competitiveness. We have almost no ineffective assets and inefficient capacity. Now the capacity utilization rate is high in November, with the policy. Adjustments and market recovery, ample orders in 2019, will not meet market demand without expansion."
Comments are as follows:
In 2018, the installed capacity will bottom out, and the turning point will be basically confirmed in 2019. In 2018, the 531 new government led to the downsizing of the industry. The price of the products dropped sharply due to the imbalance between supply and demand, and the profits of the industrial chain were basically squeezed out. At the same time, it should be noted that the falling prices will bring greater demand, and the Q4 companies will be able to verify the production schedule and next year's orders. At present, it is a reasonable expectation to achieve 120GW global installation in 2019, which is 20% year-on-year. The increase in volume will inevitably lead to an upward trend in the industry price center.
In 2018, Q3 should be the bottom of the industry, and the most difficult time has passed. Why is 2018Q3 at the bottom? Because the impact of 531 is very sudden, the price after 531 has dropped sharply, and orders have been cancelled a lot, which leads to high inventory of related companies and high inventory depreciation. This high inventory depreciation will not appear again in Q19 in 2019, because the relevant companies are currently selling well, inventory control is reasonable, and the possibility of a sharp decline in the industry chain price is extremely small.
In addition to the above predictions, Xiaobian also found that the recent PV market concept stocks in the capital market also reflected a positive trend. On December 5, several PV concept stocks rose again. Sunshine Power (300274) and Tuo Xinxin (002218) went up, Tongwei shares (600438) rose 8.95%, Longji (601012), Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316) ) Lin Yang Energy (601222) and Zhonghuan (002129) are on the rise.
On the news, on November 2, the National Energy Administration held a symposium on the mid-term evaluation results of the 13th Five-Year Plan for solar energy development, and discussed the adjustment of the development planning targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan for photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation. The PV “13th Five-Year†installation target will be raised to 250GW, even more than 270GW, and PV subsidies will continue.
It is worth noting that, near 2019, policy policies such as tariff subsidies, front runners, distributed PV management methods and quota systems may be intensive, and the PV market is worth looking forward to.
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