Drought increases the local power shortage spread or expands to 40 million kilowatts

The power shortage is spreading.   This year, the power shortage has not only come early, but is spreading from the east to the center and even the country. According to the prediction of the national authorities, this year's summer power gap in China is likely to expand to 40 million kilowatts, which is the most in recent years. As for the reasons, analysts believe that in addition to strong demand for electricity and insufficient hydropower in some areas, the main reason for the low-temperature electricity shortage is that the electricity price mechanism has not been straightened out. However, some people in the industry have proposed to realize the linkage between coal price, on-grid electricity price and sales price, and at the same time promote electricity price reform, do a good job of residential ladder price, time-of-use electricity price, etc. The system design allows electricity prices to truly reflect the scarcity of power resources. In the off-season electricity shortage, in the traditional low season, East China and South China are experiencing “electricity shortage”. The reporter learned from the power system in Zhejiang Province that as early as March 22, Zhejiang Province began to implement the D-class orderly power plan, avoiding the peak of 2.4 million kilowatts, controlling the use of electricity in high-energy-consuming industries, and giving priority to residents' lives. Electricity and important users use electricity. “In the first quarter, Zhejiang’s enterprises that were restricted in electricity consumption reached more than 500,000 households.” Dai Yan, deputy director of Zhejiang Electric Power Dispatch and Communication Center, said at the end of April that a large number of enterprises had to develop a strict and orderly electricity plan. Faced with "three restrictions and one limit" and "two stops per week" and other power-limiting measures. The situation in the second quarter seems to be more serious. The newspaper was informed that due to the reduction of input power from Anhui and the reduction of defects in a unit in Jiaxing, the current power supply capacity in Zhejiang Province is only 35.35 million kilowatts, with a maximum gap of 2.5 million kilowatts to 3 million kilowatts. It is estimated that the largest gap in Zhejiang Province in the second quarter will reach about 4.3 million kilowatts. On May 17, the Zhejiang Province Orderly Electricity Working Coordination Group officially issued a document. From now on, Zhejiang's orderly electricity use plan was adjusted from the original D-class fault avoidance peak of 2.4 million kilowatts to a new C-class fault avoidance peak of 3 million kilowatts. It is worth noting that the “electricity shortage” is spreading from the east to the middle. A staff member of Xiangfan Power Plant in Hubei Province told the reporter: "At present, the coal shortage situation in the power plant is still good. Due to the serious shortage of coal in the power shortage last year, this year has actively carried out relevant countermeasures. At present, the contract has been signed to more than 3 million tons. Now it is the peak of electricity consumption. The power plant units have all been in operation. Although so many contracts have been signed, it is impossible to guarantee that the shipment will not be known.” According to the forecast of Hubei Power Department, in the next five months, the rainfall will still be partial. Less, except for western Hubei, most of the rest will be less than one to two percent, and southeastern Hubei may be less than 20%. UHV lines that provided great help during the period of power shortage in Hubei Province were difficult to reinforce this summer due to the expansion project. According to Yu Yanshan, deputy director of the General Office of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, from the monitoring situation in the past week, Chongqing, Hunan, Anhui and other places have been cut off; Zhejiang, Guizhou, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places have implemented peaks. Electricity; from the traditional coal-deficient provinces such as Qinghai, Hubei, and Hunan in the central and western regions to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan and other major coal-producing provinces, coal shortages have occurred. Xue Jing, director of the Statistics Department of the China Electricity Council, said that this year will be the most serious year of power shortage since the 2004 power shortage, and there is still no "bottom". From February to April, this was a “light season” for electricity use, but there was a large power gap from the eastern province to the central provinces. The reporter learned from the State Grid Corporation that since April, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Chongqing have the most outstanding power shortages. The maximum power load of Hunan Power Grid has reached 5.7 million kilowatts, accounting for 33.7% of the province's actual electricity demand. Drought increases Hubei's power shortage In analyzing the main cause of the “electricity shortage”, Xue Jing said that the contradiction between supply and demand, the contradiction of coal price and electricity, and the structural contradictions of power have overlapped, which has led to a particularly serious “power shortage” this year. According to the reporter's understanding, the recent structural contradictions are particularly prominent in the following: imbalanced regional distribution of new power generation installed capacity, less power generation installed capacity in the eastern and central regions with large electricity demand; power supply and power grid construction are not synchronized, especially power grid construction. The lag makes the electricity in the west unable to be fully sent to the eastern and central regions; the new scale of thermal power is declining, which makes the effective power generation capacity of the total power generation capacity increase insufficient. The newspaper learned from the Hubei Power System that due to the extreme weather of the winter and spring drought, the summer situation in Hubei is particularly severe. The data show that from January to April this year, the reservoir water in the Yangtze River, Qingjiang River, Hanjiang River and other river basins decreased by 60% to 80% compared with the same period of the previous year. According to informed sources, in the past, this period of Hubei Province was a period of hydropower development, and it was also a “golden period” for summer coal storage. However, so far this year, stocks are still falling due to the total shortage of electricity and coal. According to incomplete statistics, there was a coal shortage shutdown on April 29, the maximum coal shortage capacity was 940,000 kilowatts, and the daily coal shortage capacity was 320,000 kilowatts. There were 6 coal-fired power plants with less than 10 days of inventory. The general manager of a coal company in Hubei told Huang Huabao that the power plants in and around Hubei Province did have a shortage of raw materials. Several power plants have been talking about price issues with us. He said: "At the beginning of this year until the end of April, the price of raw coal was maintained at 700 yuan to 800 yuan per ton, while the price of raw coal in the same period last year was 600 to 700 yuan. It is not ruled out that there is still a possibility of rising." The phenomenon is more common. The market-oriented coal price continued to rise, which caused the power generation cost of thermal power companies to rise. However, the on-grid tariffs controlled by the government did not change. The more power generation enterprises suffered from losses, the production enthusiasm was hit. "In addition to the strong demand for electricity and insufficient hydropower in some areas, the main reason for the low-temperature electricity shortage is that the electricity price mechanism has not been rationalized." Yu Yanshan said that the first quarter of this year reflected whether the unit was "powered" for the utilization of thermal power. Only five hours more than the same period last year, indicating that the installation is not enough, but the price distortion affects the enthusiasm of thermal power generation. In addition, coal shortage in power plants is not only a problem of coal shortage, even if there is coal to be transported, because in the peak season of electricity consumption, the coal consumption of various power plants has risen sharply, and logistics has become a limiting factor. A person in charge of a power company in the central province said that the transportation of coal is mainly by rail transportation. Whether it can transport coal in time, the smooth transportation environment plays a decisive role, which is one of the factors that cause electricity shortage. Power gap may expand On May 17, the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as the China Electricity Council) announced the monthly economic benefits of power companies for the first time, and once again called the power generation enterprises that suffered huge losses due to the “upside down” of coal prices. Data show that from January to April, China's five major power generation group's thermal power production business lost 10.57 billion yuan, an increase of 7.29 billion yuan over the same period of last year. The China Electricity Council believes that "the rise in coal prices is the root cause." The China Electricity Council believes that although the country raised the on-grid tariffs of some provinces in April, due to the lack of implementation of individual provinces and the continuous increase in coal prices, the losses of thermal power companies have not improved. Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian and China Power Investment Corporation, which provide more than half of the country's power generation, continued to lose 1.71 billion yuan in thermal power business. Analysts said that the expansion of losses in thermal power companies will increase the power shortage this summer. Xue Jing said that the supply and demand situation this summer will present a new feature of "the gap appears earlier, the scope has expanded, and the intensity has increased." It is conservatively estimated that the national power supply gap is about 30 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to the power generation capacity of two Anhui or three Chongqing. “The power gap may be even bigger.” Su Shengxin, director of the marketing department of the State Grid Corporation of China, believes that “if the drought continues to affect hydropower generation and there is a continuous abnormally high temperature, the power gap will increase to about 40 million kilowatts.” The province is Jiangsu. According to the forecast of Jiangsu Electric Power Company, the biggest adjustment gap this summer is more than 11 million kilowatts, the gap is nearly 16%. This year, the national electricity consumption gap is about 30 million kilowatts, so Jiangsu accounts for one-third of the country. It is reported that the power curtailment plan to be implemented in Jiangsu Province this year involves a total of 68,000 industrial and commercial enterprises, and the number of power-limited households has increased by 35% compared with the same period of last year. The information from the website of Jiangsu Electric Power Company stated: “When necessary, power reduction will be implemented for key enterprises such as building materials, steel, cement, hotels, street lamps, etc. to ensure the safety and stability of the power grid and fully protect the electricity consumption of residents.” “If you invest in the above plan There is still a gap in electricity. Cement companies, Nangang, Meisteel and some high-energy-consuming enterprises will stop production and power first.” A staff member of Nanjing Power Supply Company told local media that some enterprises should limit electricity this summer. It is understood that there are 269 important power customers in Nanjing this year, involving mining, chemical, metallurgical, petroleum, electrified railway traction stations, party and government organs and public utilities.

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