Brief Discussion on the Development Speed ​​of Global Steel Industry in 2012

Global steel demand growth is lower than expected, eroding the profit margins of ArcelorMittal Steel Group and Tata Steel Group, forcing investors to revise the US$430 billion investment prospects for the 2012 steel industry.

The global use of alloys will increase by 4.5% this year, which is lower than the World Steel Association’s expected value of 5.4% in October last year. Bloomberg industry analysts said: The growth rate will be as low as 1.2%.

Mainly due to the economic slowdown in China and Europe, the real estate, automotive and machinery industries in these regions have experienced sluggish growth. The profits of the steel industry have reached the lowest level in three years, which will be the decline in alloy prices and overseas shipments.

“Because of the negative impact of the budget deficit and the debt crisis, the outlook for the European demand market is not optimistic. China continues to implement a high-pressure tightening policy on the private real estate market, and developers are facing difficulties in tightening bank credit policies and high inventory ratios.”

Arcelor Mittal Steel Group may report its profit for the last quarter of 2011 at US$157.6 million, which is the worst quarter of the year, while Tata Steel’s net profit for the same period may be approximately Rs. 3.3 billion. The $67 million may be the lowest point in five years.

The cost-reduced projected P/E ratio will be reduced from the current 13 times to 8.5 times.

The price of base HRC in 2012 will fall by 5% to US$734 per ton compared to US$772 per ton for 2011.

In 2011, China’s steel production accounted for 46% of the world's total, which eased in December after falling for six months.

The World Bank cut its global growth rate on January 18 with the largest reduction in three years, saying that the recession in the euro zone has seriously affected the development of new markets such as India and Mexico. In 2012, the world economy will increase by 2.5%, which is lower than the expected 3.6%.

The blast furnace will be shut down Due to a slump in demand, Arcelor Mittal Steel Group (the world's largest producer) stated in October last year that it will idle its blast furnaces in France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Luxembourg and will permanently shut down its Steelmaking furnace in Belgium.

The chief financial officer of India's third-largest steel company JSW Shajili? Lao said: "The global economic situation is still closely related to the difficult conditions of credit and fiscal policy faced by the Eurozone and its uncertainty. Last month's steel production was below the level of previous years, which means that the high cost of The capacity is about to end, and the demand for steel has dropped significantly."

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