Analysis of the economic operation of the machine tool industry in 2011 (Simplified)
2024-10-02 14:00:17
In 2011, China's machine tool industry continued its rapid growth in 2010, but the growth rate began to show a slow decline from the second half of the year. The industrial structure adjustment of the industry has made significant progress, and the supply of high-end machine tools for high-end users is in short supply. The upgrading of market demand structure accelerated, and imports reached a record high, while the demand for domestic low-end products decreased significantly. The international market continues to show varying degrees of recovery, and China's machine tool products exported to emerging markets have steadily increased. I. Completion of major economic indicators and import and export statistics from January to December. Since 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics has defined that enterprises above designated size will be adjusted from annual sales income of over 5 million yuan to over 20 million yuan, and some changes have taken place in the statistical scope. Therefore, in December 2011, the number of statistical enterprises in the machine tool industry was 4,385, a decrease of more than 2,000 from the end of 2010. The data covered in this article in 2011 are all within 4,385 companies. 1. Completion of major economic indicators of the industry The data of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to December, the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry has reached 660.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%; the sales value of products sold was 642.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%; It reached 97.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. The machine tool industry achieved a profit of 44.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 28.0%; the output value margin was 6.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. In the current period, the cumulative value of fixed assets investment in the machine tool industry increased by 54.7%. Specific to small industries, the gold cutting machine tool industry completed a total industrial output value of 154.29 billion yuan, an increase of 23.1%. The output of gold cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools increased by 15.1% and 20.6% respectively. The forming machine tool industry completed a total industrial output value of 58.73 billion, an increase of 36.0%. The output of forming machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools increased by 0.9% and 13.0% respectively over the same period. 2. Import and export of machine tool products In 2011, the cumulative import of machine tool products reached US$20.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was US$ 13.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The export of machine tool products was US$8.9 billion, up 26.4% year-on-year; the export of metal processing machine tools was US$2.42 billion, up 30.3% year-on-year. 3. Metal processing machine tool consumption and market share According to the estimation of our association, the output value of domestic metal processing machine tools in 2011 reached 28.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.4%. Among them, gold cutting machine tools were 19.75 billion US dollars, up 26.2% year-on-year; forming machine tools were 8.52 billion US dollars, up 37.4% year-on-year; metal processing machine tool consumption was 39.09 billion US dollars, up 32.9% year-on-year. The domestic market share of metal processing machine tools (by amount) was 66.1%, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than that of 2010; the market share of CNC machine tools was 56.6%, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than that of 2010. II. Characteristics of the economic operation of the industry In 2011, the production, import and export of machine tools in China generally maintained a relatively high-speed growth. The trend of high-end market demand accelerated, mainly showing the following five characteristics: 1. High growth rate of production and sales, increasing speed In 2011, the total industrial output value and product sales value of the machine tool industry continued to maintain a high level of growth, with the output of metal processing machine tools exceeding 1 million units. It is certain that China will continue to be the world's largest machine tool producer and consumer. In the whole year, the machine tool industry showed a trend of high level operation, high opening and low walking, and a slowing trend. After the growth rate reached the highest in May and the monthly output value reached 63.49 billion yuan in June, the growth rate began to slow down. In August, after breaking the record of 23 months of continuous monthly increase of more than 30%, September. Arrived at the bottom of the valley. In the fourth quarter, despite the expected general rebound of the machine tool industry, the three-month output value continued to rise, and the monthly growth rate of 10 and 11 months returned to more than 30%, and the output value in December reached the highest in the year. It was 68.2 billion yuan, but due to market demand, the rebound was insufficient. In December, the monthly output growth rate fell again to 26.9%. In the large machine tool industry, the highest growth rate is the small machine tool attachment industry, the casting machinery and forming machine tool growth rate is second, and the metal cutting machine tool has the lowest growth rate. Judging from the new order statistics of the seven small industry key enterprises (parts) of our association, the trend is even more severe. First, the market demand information is reduced; second, the decline in orders for low-end products is large; third, orders for heavy-duty and large-scale machine tool products have dropped significantly, among which large-scale machine tool products are particularly prominent; fourth, orders that some enterprises have completed, users are not in a hurry to pick up the goods. Even the explicit request for delayed delivery; the fifth is that the CNC system supplier orders fell significantly after October, the inventory increased, but also the phenomenon of users delaying the delivery of goods. 2. Significant progress in product structure adjustment In 2011, a large number of scientific and technological progress in the machine tool industry entered the application field. At the same time, the demand for high-end products continued to increase. Under the promotion of internal and external power, the product structure adjustment of the industry was significantly improved. High-end machine tools serve the key areas of automotive, aerospace, shipbuilding, energy, etc., and even provide complete sets of equipment for high-end foreign users. For example, Jinan Second Machine Tool Co., Ltd. won the bid in the bidding project of the Ford Company press line in the United States, and will provide two of the world's most advanced press production lines with a total value of 1 billion yuan. It can be seen from the relevant data that in recent years, the numerical control rate of domestic metal processing machine tools has been continuously improved in both quantity and amount. In 2011, the numerical control rate of production increased by 1.8 percentage points over the previous year. The output value of numerical control rate was higher than that of the previous year. The year has increased by 2.2 percentage points. The growth rate of domestic metal processing machine tool output value is also much higher than the output growth rate. The average unit price of metal processing machine tools increased by 15.3% year-on-year, and the average unit price of forming machine tools increased by 35.9%. 3. Imports climbed to new heights In 2011, the import growth rate of China's machine tool products was high, up 29.3% year-on-year. The monthly import volume is still at a high level, but the monthly growth rate is gradually slowing down. Jinqie machine tools are the absolute main force in various imported products of machine tools, reaching US$10.54 billion, up 40.0% year-on-year; imported machine tools imported US$2.7 billion, up 42.7% year-on-year, with faster growth, and imports have surpassed CNC devices. second
From January to December, the import value of metal processing machine tools was US$ 13.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. Among them, CNC machine tools were US$11.11 billion, up 42.1% year-on-year. Processing centers, grinding machines, special processing machines, lathes are among the top four importers of various metal processing machines. The top four sources of metal processing machines are Japan, Germany, Taiwan and Germany, accounting for 79.5% of total imports. Due to the implementation of ECFA, the growth of machine tool trade between Taiwan and the mainland has been accelerated. Among the sources of imported CNC lathes in the mainland, Taiwan ranked first in terms of quantity, ranking second in terms of amount, up 29.7% year-on-year, accounting for 21.7% of the total imported CNC lathes in the mainland. 4. Accelerated market demand, domestic machine tool market share has not improved. China's main task during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is to adjust structure and transfer mode. Therefore, the structural upgrading and transformation of the user industry has become the driving force for the development of the machine tool market demand to high-end. Under the pressure of high import pressure, the domestic machine tool market share in 2011 was 66.1%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous year. In 2011, the import growth rate of metal processing machine tools reached 40.6%, which was 11.2% higher than the growth rate of similar machine tools in China. Imports from Germany and Japan accounted for two-thirds of the total, pushing up the average unit price of metalworking machine tools by 33.2% year-on-year. It reflects that the upgrading of market demand structure has accelerated, and the demand for medium and high-end products has increased significantly. It also reflects that domestically produced high-end products still cannot meet the requirements of this change in terms of technology level, industrialization, market adaptability and overall service. 5. Steady growth of exports From January to December, machine tool products continued to maintain steady growth, with exports reaching US$8.9 billion, up 26.4% year-on-year, and exports were the highest in the same period over the years. Although some high-end products have been exported overseas, the pattern of unreasonable export product structure has not changed. According to the product category, the top two are cutting tools and abrasive tools. From the perspective of export growth rate, fixture attachments have the fastest growth rate. From the perspective of the nature of export enterprises, the export value of private enterprises, foreign enterprises and state-owned enterprises accounted for 44.9%, 26.8% and 15.6% respectively, and the growth rates of the three were 39.4%, 30.6% and 6.4% respectively. The main export force of CNC equipment, machine tool fixtures and machine tool parts is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise, accounting for more than 40%. Other products, such as gold cutting and forming machine tools, cutting tools, abrasives, woodworking machine tools and other major exporters are private enterprises, accounting for more than 40%, of which forming machine tools accounted for 60.1%. In 2011, China's metal processing machine tool export market, whether in the traditional markets such as the United States, Japan, Germany and other emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Russia, etc., showed rapid growth. The annual export to the top 10 is as follows: the United States, India, Brazil, Japan, Germany, the Russian Federation, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea. Among them, emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia have developed rapidly. Third, pay attention to problems and actively respond to China's previous 4 trillion domestic demand to generate certain pre-consumption, the uncertainty of the development trend of the international market, the political turmoil in some countries, the global monetary policy adopted by the United States to solve the debt problem The increase in inflationary pressures and the changes in the country's macroeconomic regulation and control policies have caused China's machine tool market to increase sharply in May and June 2011 after a rapid growth in recent years, and the growth rate has slowed down. Already formed. At the same time, the following issues must also be highly concerned: 1. Investment growth is too fast and mixed. In 2011, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the machine tool industry in the whole year was 22.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%; the purchase of equipment tools increased by 54.0% year-on-year. . In the survey of more than 50 industrial enterprises by our association, it also reflects the fact that in the past two years, the expansion of various enterprise buildings, the huge investment in equipment purchase, and the excessive expansion of production capacity. The rapid increase in investment guarantees the advanced nature of the process equipment in the machine tool industry, which helps to improve the vitality and core competitiveness of the enterprise, but it also causes problems such as excessive production capacity and redundant construction. Eventually, it will inevitably form market disorderly competition. Waste of resources. 2. Must continue to strengthen product structure adjustment In 2011, China's machine tool product product structure adjustment has made great progress, but we can see from the following aspects that there is still a big gap between product structure and market demand structure: First, high-end products Still based on imports. The amount of metalworking machine tools imported from Japan and Germany in 2011 increased by 50.3% and 40.0% respectively over the previous year. Second, the industrialization of mid-range products also needs to be strengthened. The value of processing centers imported from Taiwan and South Korea increased by 23.7% and 24.3% respectively compared with the previous year, which is basically the same as the growth rate of CNC cutting machine tools in China, reflecting that we have not effectively reduced the influx of mid-range machine tools. Third, the bottleneck of functional components has not changed significantly. In 2011, the development speed of China's functional components and the growth rate of imported functional components are basically the same, reflecting that the key functional components of the machine tool are still dependent on foreign imports, although the basic pattern has improved, but no fundamental changes have taken place. 3. The import and export deficit can not be ignored. The machine tool industry has always been an import and export deficit industry. In 2011, the import and export deficit further widened, reaching the highest level in history. The reason is that: First, imports have increased substantially. Although the export products have also increased by a large margin, the growth rate is still lower than the import growth rate, and the export base is also lower than the import, so the import and export deficit has further increased. Second, there are still problems with the structure of export products. The first two products with the largest export value in China are tool knives and abrasives (the export value of the two accounts for 44.5%), and a considerable part of them are low-priced low-end products and raw material exports. The difference in import and export prices also does not help the deficit to shrink. IV. Looking forward to meeting the challenge in 2012 The Central Economic Work Conference has been held, and the economic work tone has been determined to be stable and progress. The first priority is to achieve steady growth. In 2012, China's machine tool industry will face the following six challenges: First, the development of major users' industries will slow down, and domestic demand will be difficult to be optimistic. Second, the prices of raw materials will continue to rise, and the growth of benefits will become more difficult. Third, exchange rate pressure will continue, foreign trade will continue. The advantages are weakened; the fourth is that the global economy is complex and changeable, and it enters a new stage of uncertainty; fifth, bank loans are loosened, and capital shortages will not change fundamentally; sixth, foreign products are heavily imported, and domestic enterprises are under increasing pressure. Correctly judging the situation, fully preparing, actively responding, and striving hard are the basic tasks for maintaining the stable and healthy development of the machine tool industry. The rapid development of China's machine tool industry in recent years has laid a good foundation. The implementation of major science and technology projects has promoted the independent innovation of enterprises, the research and development of high-end products and the industrialization of high-end products; the rapid development of the past 10 years, the technological conditions of enterprises have been greatly improved; "the machine tool industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period The main points (Trial) clarified the direction of the machine tool industry from large to strong, pointing out the key tasks of the industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period and the main measures taken. The three major landmarks established are: breakthroughs in providing equipment and services for key manufacturing industries in key industries; the domestic market share of medium and high-end CNC machine tools is significantly improved, and the domestic market share of medium and high-end CNC systems and functional components is significantly improved. ; Formed a number of world-renowned brands and advantageous enterprises. “Working points†have gained wide consensus in the enterprise. To this end, the whole industry must strive to achieve the concentration of resources, energy, goals and other three aspects, and gradually realize the strategic goal of "from big to strong" in stages. In the new year, the machine tool industry is facing challenges and tasks are arduous, but as long as we correctly judge the situation, fully prepare, respond actively, and work hard, the industry will have confidence to maintain steady and healthy development.
Finally, two estimates for 2012: 1) The economic operation speed in 2012 will show a significant downward trend compared with 2011, the output value growth will remain at around 15%, and the total profit growth rate will further decline. The operating situation may be low and then high. 2) While the economic operation speed is falling, the technological innovation and product structure adjustment of the machine tool industry are expected to be further accelerated. The industrial structure will be upgraded. The merger and reorganization of strong and strong alliances and complementary advantages will become more active, and the innovation and industrialization of medium and high-end products will be more active. New progress will be made, and China's machine tool industry will take a solid step toward “strengtheningâ€.
From January to December, the import value of metal processing machine tools was US$ 13.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. Among them, CNC machine tools were US$11.11 billion, up 42.1% year-on-year. Processing centers, grinding machines, special processing machines, lathes are among the top four importers of various metal processing machines. The top four sources of metal processing machines are Japan, Germany, Taiwan and Germany, accounting for 79.5% of total imports. Due to the implementation of ECFA, the growth of machine tool trade between Taiwan and the mainland has been accelerated. Among the sources of imported CNC lathes in the mainland, Taiwan ranked first in terms of quantity, ranking second in terms of amount, up 29.7% year-on-year, accounting for 21.7% of the total imported CNC lathes in the mainland. 4. Accelerated market demand, domestic machine tool market share has not improved. China's main task during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is to adjust structure and transfer mode. Therefore, the structural upgrading and transformation of the user industry has become the driving force for the development of the machine tool market demand to high-end. Under the pressure of high import pressure, the domestic machine tool market share in 2011 was 66.1%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous year. In 2011, the import growth rate of metal processing machine tools reached 40.6%, which was 11.2% higher than the growth rate of similar machine tools in China. Imports from Germany and Japan accounted for two-thirds of the total, pushing up the average unit price of metalworking machine tools by 33.2% year-on-year. It reflects that the upgrading of market demand structure has accelerated, and the demand for medium and high-end products has increased significantly. It also reflects that domestically produced high-end products still cannot meet the requirements of this change in terms of technology level, industrialization, market adaptability and overall service. 5. Steady growth of exports From January to December, machine tool products continued to maintain steady growth, with exports reaching US$8.9 billion, up 26.4% year-on-year, and exports were the highest in the same period over the years. Although some high-end products have been exported overseas, the pattern of unreasonable export product structure has not changed. According to the product category, the top two are cutting tools and abrasive tools. From the perspective of export growth rate, fixture attachments have the fastest growth rate. From the perspective of the nature of export enterprises, the export value of private enterprises, foreign enterprises and state-owned enterprises accounted for 44.9%, 26.8% and 15.6% respectively, and the growth rates of the three were 39.4%, 30.6% and 6.4% respectively. The main export force of CNC equipment, machine tool fixtures and machine tool parts is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise, accounting for more than 40%. Other products, such as gold cutting and forming machine tools, cutting tools, abrasives, woodworking machine tools and other major exporters are private enterprises, accounting for more than 40%, of which forming machine tools accounted for 60.1%. In 2011, China's metal processing machine tool export market, whether in the traditional markets such as the United States, Japan, Germany and other emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Russia, etc., showed rapid growth. The annual export to the top 10 is as follows: the United States, India, Brazil, Japan, Germany, the Russian Federation, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea. Among them, emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia have developed rapidly. Third, pay attention to problems and actively respond to China's previous 4 trillion domestic demand to generate certain pre-consumption, the uncertainty of the development trend of the international market, the political turmoil in some countries, the global monetary policy adopted by the United States to solve the debt problem The increase in inflationary pressures and the changes in the country's macroeconomic regulation and control policies have caused China's machine tool market to increase sharply in May and June 2011 after a rapid growth in recent years, and the growth rate has slowed down. Already formed. At the same time, the following issues must also be highly concerned: 1. Investment growth is too fast and mixed. In 2011, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the machine tool industry in the whole year was 22.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%; the purchase of equipment tools increased by 54.0% year-on-year. . In the survey of more than 50 industrial enterprises by our association, it also reflects the fact that in the past two years, the expansion of various enterprise buildings, the huge investment in equipment purchase, and the excessive expansion of production capacity. The rapid increase in investment guarantees the advanced nature of the process equipment in the machine tool industry, which helps to improve the vitality and core competitiveness of the enterprise, but it also causes problems such as excessive production capacity and redundant construction. Eventually, it will inevitably form market disorderly competition. Waste of resources. 2. Must continue to strengthen product structure adjustment In 2011, China's machine tool product product structure adjustment has made great progress, but we can see from the following aspects that there is still a big gap between product structure and market demand structure: First, high-end products Still based on imports. The amount of metalworking machine tools imported from Japan and Germany in 2011 increased by 50.3% and 40.0% respectively over the previous year. Second, the industrialization of mid-range products also needs to be strengthened. The value of processing centers imported from Taiwan and South Korea increased by 23.7% and 24.3% respectively compared with the previous year, which is basically the same as the growth rate of CNC cutting machine tools in China, reflecting that we have not effectively reduced the influx of mid-range machine tools. Third, the bottleneck of functional components has not changed significantly. In 2011, the development speed of China's functional components and the growth rate of imported functional components are basically the same, reflecting that the key functional components of the machine tool are still dependent on foreign imports, although the basic pattern has improved, but no fundamental changes have taken place. 3. The import and export deficit can not be ignored. The machine tool industry has always been an import and export deficit industry. In 2011, the import and export deficit further widened, reaching the highest level in history. The reason is that: First, imports have increased substantially. Although the export products have also increased by a large margin, the growth rate is still lower than the import growth rate, and the export base is also lower than the import, so the import and export deficit has further increased. Second, there are still problems with the structure of export products. The first two products with the largest export value in China are tool knives and abrasives (the export value of the two accounts for 44.5%), and a considerable part of them are low-priced low-end products and raw material exports. The difference in import and export prices also does not help the deficit to shrink. IV. Looking forward to meeting the challenge in 2012 The Central Economic Work Conference has been held, and the economic work tone has been determined to be stable and progress. The first priority is to achieve steady growth. In 2012, China's machine tool industry will face the following six challenges: First, the development of major users' industries will slow down, and domestic demand will be difficult to be optimistic. Second, the prices of raw materials will continue to rise, and the growth of benefits will become more difficult. Third, exchange rate pressure will continue, foreign trade will continue. The advantages are weakened; the fourth is that the global economy is complex and changeable, and it enters a new stage of uncertainty; fifth, bank loans are loosened, and capital shortages will not change fundamentally; sixth, foreign products are heavily imported, and domestic enterprises are under increasing pressure. Correctly judging the situation, fully preparing, actively responding, and striving hard are the basic tasks for maintaining the stable and healthy development of the machine tool industry. The rapid development of China's machine tool industry in recent years has laid a good foundation. The implementation of major science and technology projects has promoted the independent innovation of enterprises, the research and development of high-end products and the industrialization of high-end products; the rapid development of the past 10 years, the technological conditions of enterprises have been greatly improved; "the machine tool industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period The main points (Trial) clarified the direction of the machine tool industry from large to strong, pointing out the key tasks of the industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period and the main measures taken. The three major landmarks established are: breakthroughs in providing equipment and services for key manufacturing industries in key industries; the domestic market share of medium and high-end CNC machine tools is significantly improved, and the domestic market share of medium and high-end CNC systems and functional components is significantly improved. ; Formed a number of world-renowned brands and advantageous enterprises. “Working points†have gained wide consensus in the enterprise. To this end, the whole industry must strive to achieve the concentration of resources, energy, goals and other three aspects, and gradually realize the strategic goal of "from big to strong" in stages. In the new year, the machine tool industry is facing challenges and tasks are arduous, but as long as we correctly judge the situation, fully prepare, respond actively, and work hard, the industry will have confidence to maintain steady and healthy development.
Finally, two estimates for 2012: 1) The economic operation speed in 2012 will show a significant downward trend compared with 2011, the output value growth will remain at around 15%, and the total profit growth rate will further decline. The operating situation may be low and then high. 2) While the economic operation speed is falling, the technological innovation and product structure adjustment of the machine tool industry are expected to be further accelerated. The industrial structure will be upgraded. The merger and reorganization of strong and strong alliances and complementary advantages will become more active, and the innovation and industrialization of medium and high-end products will be more active. New progress will be made, and China's machine tool industry will take a solid step toward “strengtheningâ€.
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